Although the next national elections in Nigeria are three and half years away, rivalries are growing in both the main parties: the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and the opposition People’s Democratic Party (PDP). While the APC is increasingly divided by tensions between key players — such as between former Lagos State governor Bola Tinubu and current APC national chairman Chief John Odigie-Oyegun (see NF1016) — the PDP is yet to resolve conflict between its Ahmed Makarfi and Ali Modu Sheriff factions.

President Muhammadu Buhari‘s November suggestion that he considered resigning because of the hardship caused by low oil prices is not taken seriously, although rumours continue to swirl about his state of health and levels of productivity. Whatever the truth of these reports, there are deep concerns about the functionality of the executive and its relations with the legislature.

The picture has emerged in the media and among Abuja political insiders of a praesidium at the Villa in Aso Rock, in which almost all the important decisions are taken by Buhari, flanked by his main advisor and nephew Mamman Daura, and Chief of Staff Abba Kyari (b.1938), who has been a friend for around four decades.

All three are in their seventies and share a common disdain for partisan politics and the flashy displays of wealth that are indulged in by so many of the political class. Although they all have practical experience of the business world, they favour a form of economic nationalism, and much more effective regulation to end the corrupt diversion of state funds and the flight of billions of dollars each year in trade misplacing schemes.

But they have failed to bend the civil service and even the Federal Executive Council — the substantive and deputy ministers — to their will. Now, on top of those administrative headaches about implementing policy, top people within the government and the ruling APC have launched shadowy campaigns for the presidency and other senior jobs after 2019. For the record, Buhari has let it be known that he will stand for a second term in 2019.

It is now certain that he will face at least one challenger for the party’s nomination. The most likely candidate — and one who has been consulting lobbyists in London and Washington — is Nigeria’s former vice president (1999-2007) and APC power broker, Atiku Abubakar (b.1946), who is the main shareholder of the local Intels technology company.  Although Abubakar appeared to lose his way after jousting politically with former president Olusegun Obasanjo, he is now back as a political force, and one who could win votes from his northern base unless his many rivals in the APC shoot him down.