There is growing anticipation in the capital market over what is likely to become one of the largest IPOs on the continent. Nearly every stockbroking firm on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) is advertising the expected Dangote Refinery IPO and inviting retail investors to open brokerage accounts ahead of the offer. Many of these firms say the response has been strong, with a sharp increase in new account openings since the start of the year, driven mainly by retail investors hoping to participate.

Aliko Dangote, Africa’s richest person, first announced plans to sell some of the refinery’s shares to the public last year, promising that the offer would come to market this year. Tentatively, it is understood that the share offer will open either in August or, at the latest, September. It is being timed to coincide with a period of high oil prices and disruption in global crude supply lines, which has positioned the refinery as a substitute supplier in some markets.

Because of disruption in traditional supply routes, Dangote has emerged as one of Europe’s biggest suppliers of aviation fuel. He said on 13 May that he is oversold on aviation fuel through July, despite producing an average of 20 million litres per day. Beyond aviation fuel, the refinery has also become a major supplier of petrol and diesel across the continent. Dangote said the refinery is now benefiting from higher prices for many of its products. The IPO is therefore coming at a time when the refinery appears to be generating substantial cash flow, making the offer even more attractive.

Indications are that Dangote will raise at least USD 1.5 billion in the initial tranche of the IPO, at an estimated valuation of between USD 30 billion and USD 50 billion. Depending on how well the offering is received, Dangote could later return to the market for more capital. He is unlikely to sell more than 10 percent of the refinery for now, with the expectation that he is more likely to sell five percent and retain a minimum shareholding of 80 percent. He currently owns around 92.5 percent of the refinery, with the balance held by the state-owned Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL). Dangote said on 13 May that he turned down an offer from NNPCL to increase its stake in the refinery. He did not say when the request was turned down.

In June 2021, NNPCL, under its former managing director Mele Kyari, approached Dangote to buy a 20 percent stake in the refinery, which was still under construction. In August of the same year, NNPCL obtained approval to pay USD 2.75 billion for the 20 percent stake in the Dangote Refinery. This was part of plans for the state-owned energy firm to acquire stakes in at least six privately owned refineries in the country, which were not named at the time. 

The sale was structured so that NNPCL would pay USD 1 billion in cash for an initial 7.25 percent stake in the refinery and pay the balance through the supply of 300,000 barrels of crude per day until the debt was extinguished. However, NNPCL later backed away from the option to buy the additional stake through the crude-oil supply arrangement, claiming that it would rather invest the money in cleaner energy. It is therefore unclear when NNPCL returned to Dangote to try to revive the deal. The additional stake is likely to be far more expensive now, even if Dangote were to agree to NNPCL increasing its holding.

Dangote now says his focus has shifted from selling more equity to NNPCL to ensuring that as many Nigerians as possible own shares in the refinery. The plan is for all banks and selected fintech firms to market the offer. It is expected to be a purely digital offering, with plans for Nigerians to be able to buy shares even through POS machines, which are now found in nearly every corner of the country.

As part of efforts to support the offering, the Pension Commission on 15 May granted a special waiver allowing pension funds in the country to invest in the Dangote Refinery IPO. The rule normally requires pension funds to invest only in public offerings of companies with at least two to three years of financial statements and a record of paying dividends. PenCom said it is waiving the rule specifically for the Dangote Refinery because of its potential impact on the economy.

Dangote plans to invest the proceeds of the offer in the ongoing expansion of the refinery, which will see it more than double capacity from 650,000 barrels per day to 1,400,000 barrels per day, making it one of the largest globally. Dangote plans to invest USD 45 billion from now to 2030 to expand his business empire, including by building a new LNG plant, the country’s deepest seaport and a 20,000-megawatt power plant. The aim is to raise Dangote Group’s total revenue to USD 100 billion by 2030, making it the most significant company on the African continent, with a total valuation target of around USD 250 billion.

Dangote’s plans are ambitious, but he appears to have been emboldened by the success of building the continent’s largest refinery. Having defied doubters to build the refinery, Dangote is now attempting something larger. The refinery is generating cash and looks set to continue doing so for some time, giving him the cash flow to pursue larger projects. He has become one of the most significant business figures on the continent, with several governments now courting him to expand his investments into their countries.

The May 2026 issue of Nigeria Focus also includes the following:

Implications

Politics

• Three-way race emerging ahead of 2027, but Tinubu still has the edge
• Jonathan and Makinde enter the race but remain peripheral contenders
• Former governors increasingly turning to the Senate

Economy

• Cost-of-living pressure mounts on Tinubu’s second-term bid
• Blocking deductions could partly ease Nigeria’s debt burden

Oil & Gas

• Dangote IPO set to be Africa’s largest capital raise
• Dangote seeks to block imports again as refinery nears full capacity
• NNPCL makes another move to revamp decaying refineries
• Middle East war supports Seplat and Oando expansion plans

Security

• Military presses advantage after killing top Islamic terrorist
• Increased civilian killings risk damaging US-Nigeria military collaboration

Numbers