A case before the US District Court for the District of Columbia seeking the release of files relating to Tinubu’s forfeiture of USD 460,000 to the US government in 1993 in connection with a drug-related investigation is approaching an important stage as presidential campaigning begins. The political consequences remain difficult to predict because the contents of the FBI files being sought are not publicly known.

On 23 August, the court gave the FBI until 28 August to submit confidential material supporting its decision to withhold the records for private judicial review. The FBI has argued that information contained in the files is sensitive and that disclosure could endanger individuals. Tinubu has also intervened in the proceedings to oppose disclosure. The case was originally brought by Aaron Greenspan, a Freedom of Information Act campaigner who has sought the release of documents concerning Tinubu since 2023.

Von Batten-Montague-York, a Washington lobbying firm hired by Abubakar, has been promoting the case publicly. The firm has previously said that it intends to draw the proceedings to the attention of US President Donald Trump and lawmakers in Washington in an attempt to prevent a possible meeting between Trump and Tinubu during the UN General Assembly in New York.

The lobbying firm has speculated that one possible reason for the FBI’s reluctance to release information is that disclosure could reveal that Tinubu acted as an informant for US authorities. It has suggested that this could explain why Tinubu was not prosecuted in connection with the drug investigation, though it has so far provided no supplementary evidence for this claim.

The eventual political effect of any disclosure would depend heavily on what the files contain. Evidence that Tinubu acted as an FBI informant would attract substantial media attention but would not necessarily materially affect voting behaviour. More damaging would be any new evidence directly implicating Tinubu in criminal activity. Until the documents are disclosed, however, there remains no basis for determining whether they contain such evidence or what effect any disclosure would have on the presidential election.