Risk to the Niger Delta’s crude oil production resurfaced after the Niger Delta Avengers (NDA) suddenly issued a statement on 3 November — signed by its spokesperson Mudoch Agbinibo — calling an end to the ceasefire that they declared on 22 August 2016. The ceasefire has enabled the country to increase oil production which fell to an all-time low of 1.2 million b/d at the height of the NDA’s attacks on oil assets.
The group publically stated that it would resume attacks on oil assets because the Federal Government (FG) has been insincere in its talks with the Niger Delta’s population. It cited the FG’s disruption of a meeting of the Pan Niger Delta Forum (PANDEF) that was to be held at Port Harcourt, Rivers State, as a sign of the government’s insincerity in the peace dialogue.
But the real grouse of the NDA is with another group — calling themselves the ‘Reformed Niger Delta Avengers’ — that are apparently getting some financial support from the government, while claiming to stop attacks on oil assets. The NDA insinuated that the Department of State Security’s (DSS) director-general Lawal Musa Daura, and ministers, including the Minister of Transportation Rotimi Amaechi, are behind this group and are using it to siphon off government money.
The NDA also threatened to attack the Egina Floating Production Storage Offloading (FPSO) vessel — built by Samsung and operated by Total — which should arrive in the country in the first quarter of 2018. They claim to be tracking its journey for a potential attack when it gets into Nigerian waters.
There are several reasons explaining the NDA’s re-surfacing. The first is that a section of the group may not have received their share of the FG’s concessions for calling off attacks on oil assets. Consequently this faction feels it has to resort to the threat of violence to be heard.
A second option put forward by the Personal Assistant to the President on Social Media, Lauretta Onochie, links the NDA’s threat to the recent court summons on former president Goodluck Jonathan (2010-2015) to come and testify in the case against former PDP spokesperson Olisa Metuh, who is on trial facing corruption allegations. A Federal High Court Judge, Justice Okon Abang, issued a subpoena to Jonathan to testify in the case on 31 October, a decision that Jonathan challenged.
It appears that the NDA has lost much of its potency given that no attack has been orchestrated before or after they issued their statement, and some critics believe the militant group is simply seeking public recognition.
But, with campaigns for the 2019 election gathering momentum, the NDA threat is a possible signal that attacks on oil assets are likely to resume, while the different Niger Delta militant groups begin to align themselves politically. Much will depend on the FG’s response, and whether they will push forward with dialogue, increase their concessions, or ignore the threats.
This article was taken from our weekly Nigeria Politics & Security publication. If you wish learn more about this topic or discuss the paper with us then please contact us.
