Date: Wednesday 08 July | Location: Online Webinar | Time: 15:00 – 16:00 (UTC+1)

When Donald Trump began his second term, he quickly acted on his aggressive campaign rhetoric to counter Mexican cartel activity. In February 2025, the US State Department designated eight cartels Foreign Terrorist Organisations and in October 2025 declared the US to be actively engaging in "armed conflict" with drug cartels, thereby greatly expanding the rules of engagement afforded to US military and intelligence agencies operating in Mexico.

Since February 2026, the US has reportedly assassinated senior and mid-level cartel figures either with or without Mexican knowledge and involvement including "El Mencho", the leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel and which saw widespread retaliatory cartel violence. 

Against this backdrop, and under increasing US pressure to be visibly dismantling cartel activity, Mexican president Claudia Sheinbaum is forced to contend with maintaining her domestic political support, assuring the Mexican population that she can secure the country's sovereignty and dealing with her erratic northern neighbour which remains Mexico's biggest trading partner.

As Trump winds down US involvement in Iran and with a temporary hiatus during the World Cup, attention is expected to switch back to its southern neighbours ahead of the midterms later this year.

With leading Mexican commentator Pablo Majluf, we will be asking: what is the meaningful impact of FTO designations for Mexico’s political economy, how exposed are multinationals and what does this mean for Trump’s approach to the country for the rest of his term? How is Sheinbaum positioned to respond to US pressure while managing her own domestic base? And how have the cartels responded to the already increasing US intelligence presence in Mexico?

Speaker

Pablo Majluf (@pablo_majluf) is a Mexican journalist, political commentator and writer. He is the founder, editor and publisher of Disidencia, a political and cultural publication on Substack featuring essays, columns and podcasts on Mexican politics, international affairs, media and culture. He is also a monthly columnist for Literal Magazine. Previously, he served as Digital Editor at two national magazines, and as a political commentator on Mexican television. He is the author of two non-fiction books on politics and public affairs, as well as two novels.