Date: Wednesday 09 October | Location: Online Webinar | Time: 14:00 – 15:00 (UTC+1)

President Luis Inácio Lula da Silva is half-way through his third four-year term in office. The left-wing former trade union leader has — despite fears of political polarisation, democratic backsliding, and excessive tax and spend programmes — done comparatively well. Economic growth remains in the 2%-3% range, inflation is below 10%, and large multinational companies continue to invest in Brazil.

The first round of the municipal election on 6 October, which involved 155 million Brazilians, was: something of a referendum on Lula’s performance so far; and a stepping stone for would-be candidates in the 2026 presidential election.

Lacking his own congressional majority Lula has had to work in coalition with centre-right political parties. He has shown surprising flexibility but can he keep it up for the next two years?

The webinar will cover:

• Analysis of the frist round election results
• Can the far-right stage a comeback in São Paulo and other key cities?
• Do worries over crime, gun ownership, and culture wars threaten the government?
• Lula is considering a fourth term but is it time for a Kamala Harris style new generation of politicians to come to the fore? 
• Will Lula be able to work with the two new heads of the bicameral National Congress?
• The government boasts about its fiscal responsibility but can he actually meet the zero primary deficit target?
• The rate of Amazon deforestation has fallen, but is the improvement sustainable?
• What is the likely shape of Brazil’s energy transition?
• What further economic reforms are possible in the next two years?

Speaker

Andrew Thompson — who is a senior consultant with Menas Associates — is an experienced freelance writer, analyst, and consultant with a background in political risk and economic analysis. He has closely followed Brazilian politics since the 1980s when he was based in Rio as a correspondent for BBC World Service. As head of the its Latin American service — as well as a contributor to The Times, EIU and other outlets — he organised coverage of major political developments across the region. Recent projects have included: Chile’s 2019 social explosion; and Brazil’s energy transition.