The Zanzibar election crisis continues after the Zanzibar Electoral Commission (ZEC) annulled the vote on 28 October. Talks between the main parties are ongoing, with little movement reported from original positions. Former Nigerian president Goodluck Jonathan is the most high profile figure involved, as a representative of the Commonwealth, but domestic actors will determine the outcome in the isles. On 9 November, the Civic United Front’s (CUF, the main opposition party and self-declared winner of the polls) Maalim Seif Sharif Hamad met with Zanzibar President Mohammed Ali Shein, former Tanzanian president Ali Hassan Mwinyi and former Zanzibar president Amani Abeid Karume in an attempt to break the deadlock.

Since Seif Sharif Hamad’s declaration of his own victory on the first day of counting, Zanzibar has been in limbo. Following a show of force by the security forces, the ZEC chairman Jecha Salim Jecha nullified the election results for the Zanzibar presidency and the isles’ House of Representatives, and called for a re-run of the election within 90 days. This decision was almost certainly without legal basis, East Africa Politics & Security has been told.

International pressure has come from all sides, with observer missions from the African Union, the East African Community, and others all calling for the count to be resumed. All observers were also informally in agreement that the votes in the constituencies were showing Seif Sharif as the next president.

Since then there has been a stalemate. Seif Sharif first called for street demonstrations if he was not declared president by 1 November. The day came and went as talks continued. The following day (2 November), the Zanzibar government announced that President Mohammed Ali Shein of the ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) would continue in office until a new president was announced by the ZEC. This too has been called into question, as the constitution states that a president will be sworn to a five year term. Shein was sworn in on 1 November 2010 and so his time should be up. A former Zanzibar Attorney General has questioned this decision. More powerfully, the leader of the opposition ACT-Wazalendo Zitto Kabwe likened the current situation to a coup, and claimed President Shein and his government were illegitimate.

President Shein himself has been silent since the crisis began. He is a reluctant president, who is thought to have had doubts about running for a second term. He has likely been isolated by hardliners within CCM, from Zanzibar, but also Mainland Tanzania.

In public, both CUF and CCM have been uncompromising. In a strongly worded statement on 4 November, CCM called for Seif Sharif’s arrest for illegally declaring himself victor, and for heightened security across Zanzibar to put down any resistance. Seif Sharif has consistently maintained his stance that he is the rightful winner of the election.

The prospect of a peaceful resolution seems good, given that talks are ongoing, yet experienced Zanzibar watchers tell East Africa Politics & Security that resistance within CCM to the coming of a CUF administration should not be underestimated. If CUF was to push for greater autonomy, this would lead to strengthened calls for a parliament and other institutions for Mainland Tanzania alone, and a re-structured union between the two entities.

The one issue on which both CCM and CUF can agree is that Zanzibar should have rights over its petroleum resources. Before this impasse, petroleum rights were top of the agenda even for the CCM administration, while CUF had given it prominence in its manifesto. It would be remarkable if the subject of Zanzibar’s potential petroleum resources, and how they might be managed in a redefined union, is not on the agenda for the talks.