On 31 October a pastor was killed and 20 church members abducted from a Kaduna State community. Simultaneously President Donald Trump designated Nigeria as a Country of Particular Concern (CDC) over the alleged targeted killings of Christians. Kaduna has been one of the states that is worst impacted by the insecurity that has ravaged the North for almost two decades. 

Trump’s designation has drawn renewed attention to the killings but also risks raising religious tensions and added complexity to an already multifaceted situation. It has raised questions about Trump’s motive for his declaration. 

Trump posted that ‘Christianity is facing an existential threat in Nigeria’ before alleging that ‘radical Islamists’ have killed thousands of Christians. In a less than subtle warning, he warned that he had asked two Congressmen to report the situation back to him, which could indicate that he may impose further penalties. 

The following day he threatened Nigeria with military action and ordered the US Department of War to prepare for a ‘fast, vicious and sweet’ attack against Islamic terrorists targeting Christians. This revealed Trump lack of understanding of the true situation and, as is his character, he propensity in pressuring Abuja into making concessions. There are no clear battle lines in the terror attacks and any US attack will lead to significant civilian causalities, including the Christians he seeks to protect. 

Texas Senator Ted Cruz, who has been pushing the allegations of a Christian genocide, welcomed Trump’s declaration and piled further pressure on the country. He disclosed that he is pushing for legislation that will target those implementing Islamic Sharia and blasphemy laws in the North, which will also increase tensions. 

Tinubu says there is no genocide 

President Bola Tinubu insisted that there is no genocide against Christians and that Nigeria guarantees religious freedom. He said that, in order to address the inherited security challenges, his government has maintained an open and active engagement with both Christian and Muslim religious leaders. Tinubu said that Nigeria is willing to work with the US and the international community to ensure that people of all faiths are protected. 

Interestingly, when in opposition, however, Tinubu appears to have previously pushed the same allegations as Trump. In a January 2014 post he wrote ‘slaughtering of Christian worshippers is strongly condemnable’’ and questioned the ability of the 2010-2015 president Goodluck Jonathan to prevent the killings. Tinubu made the remarks to show his concern for Christians at a time when he was supporting the late president Muhammadu Buhari (2015-2023), who was regarded as a Muslim fundamentalist. This has raised questions about the sincerity of his current denial now that he is president. 

Trump’s motives are questioned 

There is a strong argument that the US is punishing Nigeria for snubbing its request to accept deported immigrants. Foreign Minister Yusuf Tuggar claimed in July that it had pressured Nigeria and other African countries to accept Venezuelan deportees, some of whom were ‘straight out of prison’ and responded that Nigeria already had enough problems. 

The US denied the accusations but Abuja insists that it has come under pressure. Ghana later accepted some of the deportees and some believe that the CDC designation may be Trump punishing Nigeria to force it into accepting refugees. Furthermore, the non-aligned Nigeria has long been a supporter of Palestine, advocating for a two-state solution, and an end to the atrocities in Gaza. Its position on these issues may have irked Trump. 

Trump already declared Nigeria as a CDC, in 2020 during his first administration. It also potentially indicates that Trump’s evangelical base may be pressuring him to save Christianity in Nigeria. Former president Joe Biden had removed Nigeria from the list in 2021. 

Nigeria continues to rank high on a list of countries with large numbers of non-state actors’ killings, despite not being in a formal war. These have impacted both Christians and Muslim, but a recent police report showed that Christians have suffered slightly higher numbers of casualties than Muslims over the past decade. The differences are, however, insignificant enough to raise allegations of genocide. 

The situation in the North is complex, with various terror groups with differing ideologies carrying out attacks. Boko Haram and its breakaway Islamic State for West African Province (ISWAP) faction, are the most popular. They have a clear ideology to propagate Islam and, if it means killing Christians, they will do so. However, they also kill Muslims who do not align with their extremism. Hundreds have been massacred in mosques, in the same way that hundreds of churches have been destroyed, pastors killed and churchgoers abducted. 

Boko Haram and ISWAP mainly operate in the Northeast, while the Northwest has seen groups of roaming armed bandits killing farmers and rustling their cattle. They appear to have no ideology but are mainly after the money generated from cattle rustling. 

In the Northcentral region, most attacks are carried out suspected Fulani herdsmen that stage attacks that have both religious and economic undertones. The majority of those living in the region are nominally Christians while the herdsmen are predominantly Muslims. The Fulani aim to displace as many people as possible so that they can take over fertile land for grazing and they usually emerge from nowhere, carrying out their killings, and then vanish. There are some reports that Fulani militias are often invited in from neighbouring countries to stage such attacks before leaving again. Consequently, if the US were to stage attacks, it is likely that more Christians in the Northcentral would be killed than saved. 

Trump may force the government to act more decisively. The previously passive military has stood by and done little to help the villages being attacked. To reverse the CDC designation, Abuja will have to prove that it is acting to stop the killings. 

Washington’s actions have, however, inflamed religious tensions and Cruz’s efforts to push for a law that targets those implementing Sharia and blasphemy laws in the North is likely to exacerbate this. The average northerner will see this as an attempt to dictate how they should practice their religion. This could lead to local rioting if the government is seen as curtailing Sharia Law in line with US pressure. 

More significantly, the US’ efforts could impact the 2027 election results. Tinubu has already been toying with the idea of dropping his fellow-Muslim vice president Kashim Shettima, in a bid to attract Christian votes in the South. He will almost certainly be replaced by a Christian running mate given that Trump could easily try to justify his CDC designation if there is another Muslim-Muslim candidacy in 2027. 

However, the CDC designation may enhance Tinubu’s electoral chances in the North, where his political fortunes have dipped, if he is seen to resist Trump’s pressure.