Algeria’s 7 September presidential election has seriously weakened President Abdelmadjid Tebboune domestically because all Algerians know that, despite the official results, he has less legitimacy than at any time since he first came to office in December 2019.

He did, however, obtain very rapid support from the international community and, most importantly, from France and the US. As soon as the Autorité nationale indépendante des élections’ (ANIE) provisional results were announced on 8 September, both Paris and Washington sent their warm congratulations to Tebboune. 

The US State Department welcomed the results, reaffirming Washington’s interest in its bilateral relations, and its willingness to continue working with Tebboune during his second term. The French Presidency also reacted very quickly by releasing President Emmanuel Macron’s message to Tebboune. It read: ‘France is particularly attached to the exceptional relationship that binds it to Algeria, in all areas, whether it be memory, the economy, mobility between our two countries, educational and cultural cooperation, but also security and the fight against terrorism. On the regional and international scene, dialogue between our two countries is essential, particularly in the context of Algeria’s presence on the United Nations Security Council.’

This rapid recognition is perhaps surprising in that it was sent before the Constitutional Court had validated the final election results. However, this almost unseemly speed of recognition and congratulations is unsurprising. It was part of the late-August deal with France and the US whereby Algeria supplied Lebanon with three cargoes of fuel oil to enable it to operate its power plants and overcome its electricity crisis following Israel’s attacks (Algeria Politics & Security – 03.09.24).

Macron’s envoy confirms France’s support

If the US and France were anxious about Tebboune’s domestic weakness, President Macron sent a high level envoy to the Mouradia Palace on 11 September to assure him that he had France’s full support. His advisor on North African and Middle Eastern affairs, Anne-Claire Legendre, met Tebboune and his Chief of Staff, Boualem Boualem. A press release confirmed the meeting but gave no details or the nature of Macron’s message to Tebboune.

However, we understand from our well-placed source that it was almost a replay of that given by President François Hollande during President Abdelaziz Bouteflika’s hospitalisation in France following his stroke in 2013. On that occasion, the Département du Renseignement et de la Sécurité’s (DRS) head, General Mohamed ‘Toufik’ Mediène, was planning to use Article 88 (now 102) of the Constitution to get rid of Bouteflika on the grounds that he was medically unable to carry out his duties. However, Hollande intervened by issuing a statement saying that he had visited Bouteflika in hospital and found him to be full of ‘alacrité.’ The message was very clear: ‘Don’t remove Bouteflika: he is going to continue until the next election in 2014. As we know, that was not a true reflection of Bouteflika’s health but, with the backing and intervention of France, he stood for re-election in 2014 and remained in office, although incapacitated, through another chaotic five years.

Legendre’s message to Algiers was similar. To paraphrase her words, she said: ‘Tebboune is our man, the Elysée has his back,’ with the clear message to Army Chief of Staff, General Saïd Chengriha being: ‘Don’t mess with him (Tebboune)’.

According to the French Embassy in Algiers, Macron sent ‘his warmest congratulations and best wishes for success’ to his Algerian counterpart, reminding him of Paris’ commitment to ‘the exceptional relationship that binds it to Algeria in all areas.’

A possible silver lining: the possible end for Saïd Chengriha?

As Algeria Politics & Security – 27.08.24 and 10.09.24 suggested, President Tebboune may have been planning to retire Chengriha on the Revolution Day of 1 November. With the upsurge of hatred against Chengriha — and with both France and the US wanting to see him removed and perhaps even put behind bars — Tebboune may still move against him and the DRS as represented by General M’henna Djebbar. However, his domestic weakness may persuade him to delay the move, possibly to Independence Day on 5 July 2025. 

Tebboune can draw strength and legitimacy from this reconfirmed US and French support. Whether he moves quickly or more slowly, the writing is clearly on the wall for Chengriha and M’henna Djebbar. Washington and Paris are fully aware of Chengriha’s criminal record and, more importantly, neither have forgiven him for his action against General Mohamed Kaïdi. It is conceivable that the West may yet see Kaïdi become Algeria’s Chief of the Army Staff. If that happens, all bets on an Algerian-Russian rapprochement will be off; relations with Morocco will improve, and so too will wider regional relations. 

In short, the 7 September election has made Algeria and its Presidency politically weaker, which is always in France’s best interests, but ironically, as the above scenario suggests, possibly much stronger on the international stage in the longer run.