This is an excerpt from our Nigeria Politics & Security publication.

Tougher times await Boko Haram as the dry season approaches and the US finally approves the sales of arms and munitions to the army to aid its fight against the insurgency. The Pentagon published a detailed list of the arms and munitions that it is selling to Nigeria on 28 August which, among other things, includes 12 A-29 Super Tucano aircraft, a variety of laser guided missiles and bombs, and miscellaneous equipment and ammunition.

The arms are perhaps the strongest boost to the army in over two decades, and come just in time for the forthcoming dry season which will allow the army to operate freely.

The army has largely struggled to deal with the attacks from Boko Haram because the rainy season has helped the militants’ asymmetric warfare tactics. But, with the rainy season coming to an end, the arms will provide powerful air cover for the army’s operation in the region. The training and technical support that also comes with the sale will boost the army’s fighting capacity.

The army already benefits from training from the British Army. This arms deal has been developing for seven years, but was withheld amid concerns in former president Barack Obama’s Administration over the human rights record of the Nigerian army. Ironically, the arms sale was confirmed in the same week that Amnesty International accused the army of being responsible for several missing persons from the North East zone. It noted that over 600 members of the Islamic Movement in Nigeria (IMN) have been missing since 15 December 2016. The organisation also accused the Nigerian government of holding several people in secret detention to install fear in the population. The army has denied the allegations.

One argument in support of the sale is that the earlier decision to hold back from selling arms to Nigeria did not stop the war or the human rights atrocities. In fact, the fighting provided a fertile ground for the human rights abuses. According to this argument, though the hope is that the army will now be able to end militant acts in the region and eliminate the excuses for human rights abuse.

However — without a comprehensive strategy of associating with the local population and preventing civilian casualties — it is unclear how this could be achieved. The army has poor history of disenfranchising local groups in its efforts to combat Boko Haram, and increasing its arsenal does not appear to be a short-term solution.