Oppression of Ugandan opposition figures continues after President Yoweri Museveni’s victory in last month’s elections (see East Africa Politics & Security – 23.02.16). East Africa Politics & Security looks at the latest developments and predicts that the uncertainty and security presence is likely to last until April with the Ugandan opposition challenging the polls.

Museveni’s main rival, Kizza Besigye of the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC), remains under house arrest at his home near Kampala. His campaign manager, Darius Tweyambe, was arrested on the weekend of 5-6 March in Rukungiri in the west of the country, Besigye’s home district. The FDC claim that numerous other party leaders have been arrested across the country and detained.

The clampdown on the media has also continued in the period since the vote. There have been at least four arrests of journalists outside Besigye’s home since he was put under house arrest, two of them occurring during live broadcasts. Journalists who covered most election related events have suffered some level of abuse or intimidation by security services.

In the courts, former prime minister and presidential candidate Amama Mbabazi has filed a petition contesting the results. His amended petition was presented to the Supreme Court on 7 March. The full hearing is expected to begin on 14 March, with judgement expected on 1 April.

Mbabazi’s amended petition questions the Electoral Commission’s (EC) biometric voter register, claiming that the number of actual voters recorded could not have been processed in the time available. He is also calling for a recount in 44 districts, including that of Kiruhura, where every vote was cast for President Museveni in the presidential poll. Besigye would also have filed a petition, but due to a raid on his party offices, and his own detention, was unable to do so before the deadline.

The post-election uncertainty can be expected to continue until mid-April at least, as the petition is heard and judgement is awaited. The country, and in particular the capital Kampala, remains tense and a heavy security presence can be expected to be maintained for the coming weeks.