President Bola Tinubu finally carried out a much-delayed cabinet reshuffle on 23 October but, as expected, only fringe ministers were impacted. He replaced five ministers with seven individuals whilst reassigning ten others. Those sacked were: Uju-Ken Ohanenye (Women Affairs); Lola Ade-John (Tourism); Tahir Mamman (Education) Abdullahi Gwarzo (Minister of State, Housing, and Urban Development); and Jamila Ibrahim (Youth Development). 

The only real surprise was Mamman. The expectation was that considering the high priority that Tinubu is placing on education, it is one of the portfolios on which he would not want to push a change midway into his administration. The reason may be Mamman’s controversial push to ensure that only children who have reached the age of 18 are admitted for university degree courses. The policy attracted a lot of criticism, especially in the South where many children are ready for university at 16. He was also unable to resolve issues with the Academic Staff Union of Universities (ASUU). 

Tinubu gave no reason for the removal of the five ministers but his spokesman, Bayo Onanuga, claimed that the president had personally pre-warned them. This was better than previous examples of ministers only hearing about their sacking on radio or TV. 

This cabinet reshuffle has been long in coming. It was initially expected to be announced on 1 October during Tinubu’s Independence Day speech. Instead, however, he decided to review the list during his two-week working vacation in London and Paris from which he returned on 19 October. 

Why some ministers weren’t sacked

The reshuffle is not without its controversies. While the president claims it was intended to ‘reinvigorate’ the government and deliver higher efficiency and productivity, this has been questioned by the changes and, more importantly, those who were retained. For example, Tinubu did not remove any of the eight former governors in his cabinet despite some having been very inactive in their ministries. 

One who has hardly been seen or heard of since his appointment is the Minister of Marine and Blue Economy, Gboyega Oyetola, who was Osun State’s 2018-2022 governor. According to Tinubu the new ministry, created by his administration to open a new segment of the economy, has been under-utilised. Oyetola’s activities have largely been shrouded in mystery. He has shied away from interviews so no one is sure how to measure the impact he is making. For most he was top of the list of expected sackings but he survived which has been attributed to the fact that he is Tinubu’s blood relative. The perception is that he has been put in the ministry to keep him in the public eye to prepare him to contest Osun State’s 2026 gubernatorial elections. In November 2022 he failed to win a second term when he was defeated by the PDP candidate, Ademola Adeleke, and this ambition is thought to have become a distraction from his current role. 

Bello Matawalle — the Deputy Minister for Defence and Zamfara State’s 2019-2023 governor — was also expected to be sacked. This is because of the allegations of his close links with bandits operating in Zamfara State before he was defeated in his bid for a second term. He is being investigated over allegations of fraud by the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) as well. His performance, alongside other security chiefs, has also been questioned in the face of continuous attacks by bandits and Boko Haram. 

Political relevance trumps competence 

The ministers’ individual political and technical relevance reportedly played a key role in Tinubu’s decision on who to sack or retain. All of the former were considered to add little political value and there was no political risk in letting them go. None of his so-called Lagos Boys were affected by the cabinet shake-up. There had been a rumour that he would sack his Chief of Staff, Femi Gbajabiamila but that did not happen. Finance Minister Wale Edun — who has been a bit slow in implementing much-needed fiscal reforms — was retained even though Doris Uzoka-Anite (b.1973) was redeployed from the Ministry of Industry, Trade, and Investment to work with Edun as deputy minister. The ministers of defence, power, as well as economy and national planning, were all unaffected by the reshuffle. 

Tinubu appears to have carried out the changes with one eye on 2027 when he is expected to have difficulty being re-elected because, so far, his wide-ranging economic reforms have caused a cost-of-living crisis for most Nigerians. 

Besides ensuring that politically useful individuals are retained, Tinubu also appears to have made a strategic move by appointing Bianca Odimegwu-Ojuku (b.1968) as the Deputy Minister for Foreign Affairs. She is the wife of the late Chukwuemeka ‘Emeka’ Odumegwu Ojukwu (1933-2011) who led the Southeast to the brutal 1967-1970 civil war to try to enable Biafra to secede from Nigeria. The latter is viewed as a hero in the region and Bianca  is also revered. Her appointment is perceived as Tinubu’s move to woo the Southeast, where he got the least votes in the 2023 presidential elections and where he remains highly unpopular.

While it is a politically good move, it is unlikely to boost the perception of Tinubu in the Southeast because Bianca does not command any significant political following in the region. Her late husband’s All Progressive Grand Alliance (APGA) party has dominated politics in Anambra State since it was formed 21 years ago but has been unable to spread to the region’s other states. Even when the much-worshipped Ojukwu participated in the 2003 presidential elections, he only won in Anambra and lost badly in the other Southeast states to former President Olusegun Obasanjo who was seeking re-election after first winning in 1999. 

Meanwhile, Tinubu’s six new appointees are: Nentawe Yilwatda (Humanitarian Affairs and Poverty Reduction); Maigari Dingyadi (Labour and Employment); Jumoke Oduwole (Industry, Trade and Investment); Idi Maiha (Livestock Development); Yusuf Ata (Minister of State, Housing and Urban Development); and Suwaiba Ahmad (Minister of State, Education).