One should not forget that there is the possibility of Kurdish-Turkish relations deteriorating on account of the Kurds’ bullish position on the Kirkuk issue. Kurdish forces moved into the disputed area at the start of the crisis (see Iraq Focus June 2014).

The Kurds are still refusing to leave and upped the stakes even further with their threats to take over oil fields in the area (see page 10). Yet the clearest indication yet that the Kurds are intent on consolidating their control over Kirkuk came with the announcement that the planned referendum on the region’s future status is to ask not only whether voters want the region to become independent but also to ask whether the disputed areas should become part of the Kurdish region.

Such a move is not only outrageous for Iraqi Arabs, particularly the Sunnis who make up a significant part of the population of the disputed territories, but also for the Turkomen who are as resistant as the Sunni Arabs to the idea of Kirkuk coming under Kurdish control. The Turkomen have already complained vociferously about what the Kurds are doing in Kirkuk.

More importantly for Erbil, Ankara is not going to sit by and allow Kirkuk to be sucked into the KRG purely by virtue of the chaos that has enveloped Iraq. This could prove a complicating factor in Turkey’s relationship with Erbil that may impact on how Ankara deals with any attempt to announce Kurdish independence.

As noted above, depending on what happens with Al-Maliki, Ankara may also find itself in a much cosier relationship with the new Iraqi government. The removal of Al-Maliki, the installation of a unity government and the presence of Salim Al-Jibouri in a senior political position may all bring about a significant improvement in Turkey’s relations with Baghdad, a move that could well come at Erbil’s expense.

Other objections

Other regional states are also objecting to the prospect of Kurdish independence. Egypt is opposed to the idea, as is Saudi Arabia. The Arab League has also rejected the idea. Kurdish independence simply would not be tolerated by most Arab states.

Conversely, in what is likely to prove more of a curse than a blessing for the Kurds, Israel has moved to declare its support for Kurdish independence. At the end of June, Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu called for the establishment of an independent Kurdistan as part of a broader alliance with “moderate forces” across the region. Arabs, including Iraqi Arabs, have long been suspicious of Erbil’s cordial relations with Tel Aviv. Any suggestion that Israel is backing Kurdish independence will fuel anger and suspicion about Kurdish ambitions.

The US is also adamant about the need to maintain the unity of Iraq. Washington has not held back in expressing its disapproval at the prospect of the Kurds going it alone. The Kurds’ desperate attempts to convince the US otherwise have not borne fruit.
Uphill struggle

It is therefore clear that the struggle for Kurdish independence is going to be long and fraught with difficulties. Yet this has not stopped Barazani from pressing ahead. Towards the end of July the Kurdish parliament issued its law to establish a Kurdish election commission. Under this law, the commission will have 90 days to hold the referendum. Thus Kurds are readying themselves for the vote.

Of course, a yes vote does not mean that Erbil will declare independence immediately. The opposition from surrounding countries may ultimately prove too much and may convince the Kurds that they would be better off waiting until the time is more propitious. As Mahmoud Haji Omar, an MP in the Kurdish parliament noted this month, there is still “a gulf between Kurdish ambitions and reality”.

Yet even if this is the case Barazani will not have lost as a result of his sudden and bold move. He will certainly have secured himself greater leverage in his dealings with Baghdad and will also have strengthened the Kurds’ hand in the Kirkuk issue. His bid for independence will also bring him a boost in popularity at home, meaning that the Kurdish leader can no longer be accused of failing to defend Kurdish rights.