Infighting within Algeria’s regime is becoming increasingly complicated and even well-informed sources are saying that they do not really know who is fighting whom. Within this more complex situation, however, three new dynamics are discernible.

• The first is the group of three bloggers — Hichem Aboud, Abdou Semmar and Saïd Bensdira — who are vociferous and highly influential in setting people’s understanding, whether correctly or incorrectly, of the current situation, and who are now engaged, whether as activists or agents provocateurs for the regime, in fighting one other.

• Second is a ‘new pouvoir’, which is still not readily identifiable but which appears to be emerging from the senior ranks of General Mohammed ‘Toufik’ Mediène’s original Département du Renseignement et de la Sécurité (DRS). 

• The third relates to the competing influence of Russia and the US in which the Washington is exercising increasing pressure on the regime to distance itself from Moscow.

Within this emerging scenario, Mediène is increasingly powerful behind the scenes — despite not having any official position — and sees himself as a kingmaker. 

The US is taking advantage on Russia’s military nightmare in Ukraine by pushing Algiers to cut its ties with Moscow and also to make changes within the regime. This is not necessarily support for the Hirak or for ’regime change.’ Like France, however, it is pushing for the dismissal of the pro-Russian Army Chief of Staff, General Saïd Chengriha, and his replacement by General Mohamed Kaïdi — who is both significantly younger and also much more pro-Western — or someone similar.

The futures of both General Abdelghani Rachedi — the former head of the DGSI and latterly the DDSE — and Sonatrach CEO Toufik Hakkar, look bleak with prison as a distinct possibility.

The conflict between Algeria and Spain over Western Sahara appears to be easing, although some blockages remain to be resolved.

Sonatrach is discretely reducing its LNG production by 30% in order to meet its recent commitments for additional gas exports to Italy.

The US’ highly respected DeGolyer and MacNaughton consultancy firm has warned Sonatrach about its dangerous mismanagement of gas reserves at Hassi R’mel which is the country’s largest gas field. This refers to Toufik Hakkar’s policy of significantly reducing reinjection in order to commercialise the saved gas.