Since the beginning of the month Algeria’s President Abdelmadjid Tebboune has been planning to directly sanction France’s economic interests in retaliation for two things:

• Its late July recognition of Morocco’s claim to the Western Sahara, followed by the news that President Emmanuel Macron would make a state visit to Morocco this week.

• There was a concern that there will be a tightening of visas rules, and especially those that allow senior members of the regime more or less free movement in and out of France. Subsequently, however, there has been the threat of far more hostile moves against Algeria by Macron’s new Prime Minister, Michel Barnier, and his even more right-wing Interior Minister, Bruno Retailleau, who are both pandering to the increasing anti-Algerian clamour from France’s hard right and extreme right.

Tebboune has already issued instructions to the banks and other agencies to, ‘gradually’ but ‘massively’ reduce imports from France, depending on Paris’ attitude and actions. There is additional talk of: restricting the activities of French companies; blocking access to government contracts; and dissuading Algerian partners from maintaining their collaboration.

It is estimated that there are nearly 450 French companies and entrepreneurs employing around 40,000 people in Algeria. The authorities are considering targeting the market shares held by banks such as Société Générale and BNP Paribas, as well as other French companies that would be excluded from the market if the standoff with Paris were to intensify. The regime reportedly plans to offset the inevitable damage to the domestic market by giving unprecedented and massive advantages will be given to Turkish companies if French ones are blacklisted. It may also reduce security cooperation, including on the Sahel and Libya, to accentuate France’s geostrategic isolation in these sensitive regions.

Algeria believes that, if implemented, its measures will hurt France’s agri-foods sector because the local market in agricultural products and basic food materials it dominated by three countries: Brazil (€1.67 billion; 17% market share); France (€1.33 billion; 14%); and Argentina (€1.25 billion; 13%).

This strategy is extremely dangerous for consumers and risks seriously unbalancing the domestic economy. Stopping the import of French soft wheat — which has supplied around 60% of the Algerian market since 2019 — live animals, and dairy products will increase food prices as alternative sources are sought, most likely from Brazil and Argentina, which will almost certainly be more expensive. Given the already high cost of living, further food price rises will be politically dangerous for the regime which is already aware of the possibility of widespread social unrest, and some commentators are already forecasting skyrocketing prices and shortages.

French companies were excluded from the 8 October call for tenders for 500,000 tonnes of wheat, and demanded that participating companies not offer wheat of French origin. The Office Algérien Interprofessionnel des Céréales (OAIC) national grain agency has not revealed the source or price of the imports.

At the other end of the spectrum, Tebboune’s campaign is also targeting French cultural interests. Verbal instructions have been given to ban several stands of the most famous French publishers from the Algiers’ International Book Fair being held on 6-13 November.

On the diplomatic front, Ambassador Saïd Moussi will not be returning to France to resume his posting which ended officially on 30 July. He has subsequently been posted to Lisbon. Also, and unsurprisingly under the circumstances, President Tebboune’s state visit to France which was scheduled to take place between the end of September and the beginning of October has once again been indefinitely postponed.

The October 2024 issue of Algeria Focus also includes the following:

Politics

• The aftermath of the presidential election
• Implications

Foreign Relations

• Renewed tension between Algeria and France
• Algeria introduces visa requirements for Moroccans

Security

• The HCS considers possibility of violent unrest
• Will Algeria intervene militarily in Mali?

Economy

• Import bans and arrests cause chaos

Energy

• Sonatrach and Gazprom CEOs meet in St. Petersburg
• Hachichi unveils Sonatrach’s expansion and diversification strategy