With less than a month to go to Tanzania’s general election, a recent Twaweza poll, carried out by Ipsos Synovate under contract, indicates that ruling CCM and their presidential candidate John Magufuli have a commanding lead, with 60% of the preference. The controversies surrounding the poll, and the issues that suggest that the the vote may be closer than the headline figures suggest notwithstanding – one poll, for example, gave a significantly high level of undecided respondents – for close observers of the campaigns, the results may not have been surprising. The poor performance of opposition candidate Edward Lowassa, CHADEMA and the wider UKAWA alliance may be down to three strains they are feeling – rumbling discontent among the parties, campaign finance and Lowassa’s poor health.

Since the official campaign period began, CCM has demonstrated a wholly united front and its highly professional campaign machinery has kicked into op-eration, from neighbourhood level to social media campaigning on Twitter, Facebook and Whatsapp.

For CHADEMA and the UKAWA alliance, there has been internal friction since Lowassa was announced as the candidate while by now, with two thirds of the cam-paign period passed, they appear to be facing funding difficulties. And marking every campaign event is the very obvious issues of Lowassa’s failing health.

The departures of Ibrahim Lipumba and Wilibrod Slaa from the Civic United Front (CUF) and CHADEMA respectively (see East Africa Politics & Security – 18.08.15) seemed to have been weathered by UKAWA. Their moves occurred early on while there was still considerable excitement surround-ing Lowassa’s defection. By 17 September, this discontent appeared again, with some of the leadership of the third significant member of UKAWA, NCCR-Mageuzi, calling a press conference to complain about how the party has been sidelined in the distribution of parliamentary seats to contest. They also complained about how NCCR-Mageuzi Chairman James Mbatia has positioned himself as principally a UKAWA representa-tive, and is ignoring the party he leads.
On the more important finance front, things are clearly not well. CHADEMA held a fund-raising event in Dar es Salaam on the week-end of 19 September. Party Chairman Free-man Mbowe announced that a total of US$45,000 was raised in cash and pledges from the 800 people gathered – approximate-ly US$56 per head. Pledges will have greatly outstripped cash donations, making it highly likely that the party made a loss on the event. Mlimani City, where the event was held, is one of the city’s most expensive venues.
The party’s foremost contributor has been businessman Mustafa Sabodo, who in the past has made no secret of his considera-ble donations to CHADEMA. This year, he is nowhere to be seen. With the party resort-ing to a fundraising dinner so late in the day, it is safe to assume that the financial backing which had been expected to follow Lowassa’s defection has not come.
Yet the greatest issue on people’s minds is the one never touched on directly in main-stream media – Lowassa’s failing health. CHADEMA is keeping Lowassa wrapped in cotton wool. Though he is the headline act at campaign rallies, he rarely speaks for more than five minutes and is not always comprehensible over a public address system. Long rumoured to have Parkin-son’s Disease, he is clearly not a well man. He has little energy and exhibits few, if any, spontaneous movements or reac-tions. To comment on his health would probably backfire on CCM, where it is seen as a ‘personal issue’, and the height of arrogance to criticise another on such grounds. But it has been easy for his cam-paign to let Lowassa’s own appearance do the talking. Only in the past two weeks has his health been alluded to, most famously by presidential candidate John Magufuli, who did eight press ups on stage at an election rally in Karagwe in the country’s north west.

Menas Associates’ fortnightly East Africa Politics & Security report will continue to follow the Tanzanian general election closely.