Tanzania’s election campaign officially kicked off last week, with thousands gathering in Dar es Salaam for the Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM, or Party of the Revolution) and CHADEMA/UKAWA campaign launches. The launches saw the unveiling of both sides’ manifestos. For investors in extractive industries neither offered much comfort. As East Africa Politics & Security points out, the ruling CCM’s manifesto is a document which must be taken seriously for its importance as an accountability tool. But it is frustratingly vague on the development of the oil and gas industry, and promises more of the same for mining – increased state involvement.

In a successful attempt to match the ‘floods’ of people that had been turning up for opposition UKAWA candidate Edward Lowassa’s appearances, the ruling CCM officially launched its campaign with a mass rally on 23 August at the Jangwani grounds on the edge of Dar es Salaam’s city centre. The event drew thousands to see a line-up of contemporary pop stars and former presidents warm up the crowd before party chairman President Jakaya Kikwete introduced the party’s presidential candidate John Pombe Magufuli and his running mate Samia Suluhu Hassan. Drones circled overhead capturing aerial footage of the event as speaker after speaker sang the praises of CCM’s candidates. Their most popular lines were greeted by drum rolls and organ flourishes from the CCM house band.

The remarks of the party’s big beasts were cutting, and set the stage for a bitter campaign. Former President Ali Hassan Mwinyi went easy, asking why anyone would want to vote for CCM B [UKAWA] when CCM A is available. Former president Benjamin Mkapa was direct, he called UKAWA a party of ‘fools and loafers’. The first term – wapumbavu – is not acceptable in polite company, while the second – malofa – is archaic to young ears, explaining Kikwete and Magufuli’s genuinely shocked laughter at the terms. President Kikwete spoke strongly and passionately, telling supporters that the country needs a leader whose source of wealth is known.

The headline act was Magufuli himself. Though a popular character, who is used to addressing the public, he does not have the charisma or passion of Kikwete – though neither did Mkapa in 1995. His speech, which lasted over one hour, consisted mostly of a list of campaign promises as laid out in the party manifesto.

The CCM manifesto is a document that should be taken seriously. Spread over more than 210 pages – at least double the size of the 2010 document – it lists in some detail deliverables for the next five years. While many targets are inevitably missed, monitoring of the manifesto is a serious business, with a dedicated unit in the Prime Minister’s Office. Within the party it is often wielded, either as a tool of accountability by grassroots members, or just as a means of taking down opponents within the party. Either way, it contributes to CCM being one of the few Tanzanian institutions with strong accountability relationships.

As before, it focuses on basic infrastructure, with page after page listing roads upgraded or constructed in the past five years, and the plan for the coming term. Road works, which were managed by Minister for Works Magufuli, have been a significant centrepiece of Kikwete’s second term.

Oil and gas is dealt with only briefly. Its first commitment is to complete the Natural Gas Utilisation Master Plan, though no date is given. This was first committed to in December 2011, with a June 2012 deadline made to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). East Africa Politics & Security has heard from a source who has spoken with a former senior Tanzania Petroleum Development Corporation (TPDC) official that in the past two years, no significant progress has been made on this. The plan is important as the domestic supply obligation, set at 10% in the Statoil PSA, is a bone of contention between the IOCs and government. The latter would like to see a much higher level of domestic use, though the party manifesto gives no clue as to what that may look like, beyond a vague a promise to ‘continue to oversee the construction of critical oil and gas infrastructure to ensure efficient and productive production and use of oil and natural gas’.

The manifesto commits to continued exploration, the development of a LNG plant and the promotion of the Tanzanian private sector’s involvement in the industry. ‘Local content’ itself is not mentioned in the context of oil and gas, but the successful establishment of a ‘National Local Content Committee’ in mining is pointed to as a significant achievement of the past five years. The forward looking statement is that CCM ‘will ensure that all large mines in the country continue to purchase local goods and services in-country at a level reflective of their availability’, which is not an especially restrictive objective.

The electricity access target is 60% of the population by 2020, up from the current official figure of 36%. This is to be met through the Rural Electrification Agency working on connections, and increased generation as outlined in the current Power System Master Plan.