This is an excerpt from an article in our weekly Libya Politics & Security publication.

The world is focused on the migrant crisis, but one of the key arteries for people smuggling – Libya’s south – is often forgotten about. With the security environment there set to worsen, the issues of criminality and terrorism that incubate in southern Libya, and threaten Europe, may worsen still further.

With the UN-mediated peace talks between Libya’s warring factions faltering, the dominant militias are positioning themselves for renewed campaigns in the north. These powerful armed groups, and the unaccountable way in which they frequently operate, have become inextricably associated with the crisis in Libya. They underpin, and perpetuate, the systematic criminality which now pervades the country’s economy, the impotency of formal institutions within its politics, and the civil conflict that now defines Libya’s insecurity.

But as much as their influence has been pernicious, these militias have also played a role in securing local ceasefires in Libya’s south. It’s a region that will be critical to the future of Libya, and that of Europe or North Africa more widely. In part this is because the south is an artery for the trans-Saharan people smuggling networks that have contributed to the migrant crisis, but it is also at risk of becoming a sanctuary for Islamist extremist groups with a terroristic agenda. As the militias withdraw from the south, and local conflicts re-ignite, an environment that is permissive for both of these negative trends will prevail.

Last week, it appeared as though pro-Operation Dignity militias from Zintan and Wershefana may be preparing for an attempt to capture the capital Tripoli if the peace talks in Skhirat fail. These groups had enjoyed a tense but successful alliance with their rivals from Misrata, who conversely side with Operation Libya Dawn.

But residents did not appear convinced of the explanation provided by Operation Dignity loyalists in Janzour, near the capital, that Zintani and Wershefani movements towards Tripoli were consistent with an agreement to protect a national unity government – if one is achieved through negotiation – in collaboration with Misrata. There are indeed reports that Zintani and Misratan militias have agreed to work together to fortify Tripoli in the event of a peace agreement, but these seem far-fetched despite Misrata’s greater sympathy towards the peace talks than other Libya Dawn elements.

Misratan forces, on the other hand, appeared to be rallying to protect their city and the capital. As they do so, they are abandoning their role in policing certain more unstable pockets of the country.

After they left Kufra, for example, there was nobody to mediate in the dispute between the Arab Zway tribe and their Tebu rivals there. Last week over 30 people were killed by clashes in the town that related to this tension. A top Zway commander was among them.

The Zway were concerned that forces from the Darfur region of Sudan could enter Kufra to drive the Zway out under the guise of combatting the IS spread. There have been rumours for nearly a year that the Sudanese government is providing material support to the Libya Dawn faction, while the Sudanese government has accused Operation Dignity leaders of recruiting among the Darfur rebels, which the Sudanese government claims it has identified in the clashes.

The Tebu denied that Darfur nationals were in Kufra, and videos emerged of atrocities being committed against black Africans during this week’s operations by the Zway. Operation Dignity elements were reportedly ordered to bolster Tebu positions within the city. Libya’s two rival governments will therefore continue to try to manipulate the conflict between the Zway and the Tebu for their own benefit, even as the local militias that were affiliated with the rival parliaments – but which followed more pragmatic policies on the ground – withdraw.

The situation in Libya’s south has received little attention from international policymakers. But its crisis will define the broader threats to both Libya and Europe, and it will only become worse as long as it is ignored.