The chances that the UN-facilitated political dialogue process could achieve a successful outcome appeared to improve last week, when the General National Congress (Congress) said that it would join meetings in Geneva on 3 September. The Congress agreed to send one of its most senior figures – Awad Abdul Saddeq – as the head of its delegation.

The talks could mark the culmination of international efforts to address Libya’s conflict by convening a unity government: the UN mediator, Bernardino Leon, insisted that the Libyan sides should be able to reach an agreement by 20 September. He wants a new Government of National Accord (GNA) to be in place before the House of Representatives’ (House’s) mandate expires on 20 October. But Leon’s assessment could be overly optimistic, and Libya Politics & Security reports on why Saddeq’s appointment may well mean that the talks face an uphill battle.

Although their participation is a pre-requisite for success, the Congress and its military allies in Operation Libya Dawn are – like their rivals in the House and Operation Dignity – divided in their attitude to the peace talks. Saddeq is one of those who have taken a more sceptical and less compromising position, and he will aim to secure the influence of the Congress which has been broadly curtailed in the various drafts that have proposed the format of a unity government. This could delay any progress.

The talks in Geneva this week have already been delayed, after Leon engaged in over five hours of discussions with Saddeq and his team over their many requested changes to the final document. These reportedly included calls to specifically exclude General Khalifa Haftar from government service, to cancel all House decisions, and to ensure that the ‘State Council’ (which the Congress would predominate under the terms of the agreement) comprises only current Congress members (as opposed to former members who had been elected to the body but no longer participated, due to their recognition of the House’s legitimacy). The meetings ultimately ended with few tangible results.

Saddeq’s delegation included the Misratan hardliner Abdelrahman Swehli. His attitude has been such that in June 2015 the US and UK proposed sanctions against him in the UN Security Council. These failed to pass, but if they had been approved then he would not have even been able to travel to Geneva for last week’s meetings.

In parallel, Ali Sallabi, often considered the spiritual leader of the Muslim Brotherhood in Libya, came out against the UN-facilitated talks this week.  But the divisions among Libyans in terms of their attitude towards the talks do mean that some on the Libya Dawn side support the dialogue. For example, even though Sallabi is against the dialogue, the head of the Muslim Brotherhood-affiliated political party in Libya, Mohamed Sawwan, has come out in support of the talks, and even signed the 11 July agreement as a witness.

Yet even Sawwan is not so distanced from the Libya Dawn camp as to be amenable to Operation Dignity’s proposals. This week he warned against proposing divisive figures as nominees to participate in the GNA. His announcement was regarded as a response to the House’s submission of 12 names for their proposed candidates, most of which will have been controversial for the Libya Dawn side.

Progress in the coming weeks is nevertheless essential. The new constitution for Libya, which has been agreed by the Constitution Drafting Assembly, is likely to be revealed during that time. The mandate of the House, as well as that of the Assembly, will expire on 20 October.  If benefit is to be drawn from this rare success, then a legitimate government will need to be in place to lay the legal framework for the public votes that will ratify the constitution. This will place pressure on the parties to agree to a GNA, but the terms of the constitution could also prove to be further fuel for the disputes that divide them.