A keen contest is developing on who will become the next governor of Lagos State which is Nigeria’s richest state and commercial hub. This election is of special interest because it will by the first since Bola Tinubu left Lagos to become president in 2023. Since 2007, when he ended his second four-year tenure as governor, no one has led the state without his blessing. He is Lagos’ undisputed kingmaker and he decides who manages the state’s treasury and who is kept out. 

He showed his powerful influence when the 2015-2019 governor Akinwunmi Ambode challenged his control after the two men fell out at the end of Ambode’s first term. Tinubu ensured that Ambode did not win the APC primaries and therefore could not contest the 2019 elections, which paved the way for his anointed candidate, Babajide Sanwo-Olu, to become governor. The latter’s second term ends in 2027 and the race to succeed him is already heating up. It appears Tinubu is toying with the idea of making his son and heir, Seyi Tinubu, the next governor but this is raising political tensions.

There have been talks of Seyi being prepared to rule Lagos someday but many assumed it would not be in 2027. He is only 39 and the expectation was that Sanwo-Olu would be succeeded before Seyi Tinubu is lined up for the post when he would be around 47. That would be in 2035four years after his father’s expected second presidential term had already ended. As a former president he would have lost his political influence by then and may not be able to dictate who becomes governor. If there was ever a good time for Seyi to be governor it is 2027 because his father’s political influence will be at its peak.

That may also suit Tinubu’s plan to sustain his political dynasty which he has clearly shown that he wants Seyi to inherit. The two are very close: Seyi participated in the 2023 presidential campaign and has been involved in his father’s administration. He  nominated some key appointees and briefly even attended cabinet meetings. 

Despite this, he still: has a very strong presence at the Presidential Villas at Aso Rock; accompanies Tinubu on his many trips; and has his father’s ear on key issues. It would be easier to make Seyi governor in 2027 which is why the growing perception that Seyi has been anointed to be the next governor cannot be ignored.

But there are potential obstacles 

Seyi ambitions have been kept quiet until there was a series of endorsements from different group which is a common strategy used by the politicians to announce their intentions to join the political race, and it signals that he may be a serious contender in the 2027 gubernatorial race. 

One of the biggest challenges, however, is the fact that Seyi he has little or no leadership experience. Even though he comes from a highly politically exposed family, he has never held a political position. He is better known as a businessman but all his companies are concentrated in Lagos and there are questions about how much of their success is due to his father’s influence. He has done little to earn his place in or outside politics or business which is why the apparent effort to shoehorn him into State House is raising tensions in the president’s political camp.

On 21 November a group, calling itself Coalition of Lagos Indigenous Youths, said that they would not allow a non-indigene to become the state’s governor in 2027. This concerns speculation that Tinubu is not a Lagos indigene but is instead from Osun State, so they urged Seyi to consider joining the governorship race in Osun instead.

Other potential Lagos State contenders 

Separately, there are other Lagos State contenders who can boast of a better political track-record than Seyi Tinubu. On 21 November the Lagos State House of Assembly speaker, Mudashiru Obasa (b.1972) said that, while he is yet to decide if he would join the gubernatorial race, he is qualified if he decides to do so. He was responding to speculation that he was mobilising his supporters in preparation for joining the contest. Obasa has been speaker since 2015 and he is regarded as one of the state’s most powerful politicians, as evidenced by his ability to retain his position for more than two terms and now going into a third term. The expectation was that he would transition to becoming the governor and that it would be in 2027 so the Seyi option would end his goal if it happens.

It is not just Obasa’s ambition that could end with Seyi’s plan. The current deputy governor, Kadri Femi Hamzat (b.1964), was initially positioned as Sanwo-Olu’s natural successor. He has been deputy governor since 2019 after Tinubu persuaded him to drop his ambition in favour of Sanwo-Olu to avoid breaking the state’s unwritten power-sharing arrangement between Christians and Muslims. Part of the agreement was that, as a Muslim, Hamzat would succeed Sanwo-Olu who is a Christian. He will obviously be disappointed if that agreement is now dropped in favour of Seyi.

Then there is the case of Tinubu’s Chief of Staff, Femi Gbajabiamila (b.1962), who is known to be nursing ambitions to succeed Sanwo-Olu and has invested time and money positioning for the opportunity in 2027. He is likely to drop his ambition if it is clear that Seyi is joining the race because he would not want to oppose Tinubu who is his political mentor.

If Seyi is catapulted into pole position it could rupture the Tinubu political camp in the state. Seyi would displace several tested politicians who have waited patiently for years to have a chance at becoming governor. They will be slighted if they are pushed aside just when they are close to achieving their ambition for someone whose only claim to the post is that he is the president’s son. It is likely to lead to a pushback and a possible breakup of Tinubu’s delicate political alliance in the state.

Although Tinubu is the public face of the power block that controls Lagos politics, it is built around a carefully constructed political alliance between different groups, including: the traditional rulers; local political mobilisers; trade unions, especially the transport ones; religious heads; and business leaders. They all play a role in sustaining the perception of Tinubu’s dominance of the state. He reportedly lost the 2023 presidential elections in the state because that alliance became divided over disagreements on some nominations for the National Assembly seats.

There is a risk that this alliance will be disrupted in 2027 if Seyi is forced upon them without their endorsement. Its current agreement is that the state’s next governor should be someone with traceable roots in the state, but neither Tinubu nor his son are seen in that light. Those pushing for a state indigene to govern the state in 2027 argue that no one from the state has governed it since 1999.

Tinubu is likely to back down in promoting Seyi if he meets strong resistance. He also may not want to get too involved in Lagos State politics in 2027 when he is likely be involved in a keenly contested campaign for a second term in office. He will not want to be fighting on two political fronts.

The November 2024 issue of Nigeria Focus also includes the following:

Spotlight

• Opposition parties are running out of time to unite for 2027 elections
• Implications
• Profile: Jumoke Oduwole –new trade minister comes with high expectations

Politics & Society

• Labour on warpath with governors on minimum wage rise
• The ever-complicating crisis in Rivers State is unlikely to end soon
• EFCCstrengthened by states’ court loss

Economy & Finance

• Record rise in food prices set to get worse next year
• Tinubu’s record budget for 2025 is built on optimistic projections

Energy Sector

• Ambitious targets set for oil production
• Dangote finally admits that he needs money
• Still no date to get Port Harcourt Refinery working

Security

• Biafra Independence Day declaration will escalate insecurity in Southeast