President Muhammadu Buhari’s reversal of his initial approval of Seplat Energy Plc’s acquisition of ExxonMobil’s Mobil Producing Nigeria Unlimited subsidiary has raised doubts regarding both his own capacities as well as decision-making at the Presidency. On 9 August the senior presidential spokesman and Special Adviser Media and Publicity, Femi Adesina, issued a statement announcing Buhari’s acceptance of the Seplat-ExxonMobil agreement while noting that the deal will bring significant benefits to the country’s oil and gas industry. He additionally requested that his approval be communicated to all parties involved. Seplat also claimed to have received a letter from the Presidency confirming the approval, which was granted by Buhari in his official capacity as Minister of Petroleum, which is a position he has held since assuming the Presidency in 2015.

Buhari’s approval came as a surprise because it was known that the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) had filed a court case to block the deal. It is currently arguing that the NNPC should have granted it pre-emption rights before completing an agreement with Seplat. ExxonMobil’s counterargument is that it was not selling oil blocks but its shares in one of its many subsidiaries.

The controversy began a few hours after Buhari’s ratification of the agreement became public knowledge. In a TV interview a few hours later the Nigerian Upstream Regulatory Commission’s (NUPRC) CEO, Gbenga Komolafe, officially overruled Buhari’s approval and went on to state that his commission’s earlier decision not to approve the deal still stands. He stated that the NUPRC had already informed Seplat that ministerial consent was denied and that this decision remains in place. 

This public rejection of a presidential approval would have resulted in quick repercussions from Buhari’s predecessors but not from him. His Senior Special Assistant for Media and Publicity, Garba Shehu, soon confirmed that Buhari has shifted his position on the approval given Seplat to align with that of the regulator. He told the media on 11 August that Buhari had erroneously approved the Seplat agreement due to a lack of communication between numerous agencies and that his choice not to approve the deal is now final.

Buhari’s decision to support the NUPRC was unexpected because, as oil minister, he had the authority to sanction the deal. The oil blocks that are owned by Mobil Nigeria that were going to be part of the deal have not yet been converted to Oil Prospecting Licenses (OPLs) under the new Petroleum Industry Act (PIA). They are therefore still regulated under Nigeria’s 1969 oil law which gives Buhari the approval to sanction the transfer of such assets. 

Even under the PIA, which the NUPRC relied on to overrule Buhari’s approval as oil minister, the president can still approve the transfer of oil assets based on the NUPRC’s recommendation but the PIA also gives the president the discretion to reject the advice. His decision to accept or reject the suggestion must be officially conveyed through the commission to all parties involved. Seplat stated on 12 August that it has not yet received word from the Presidency that the authorisation letter issued for the transaction has been revoked.

The disorganised manner in which the Seplat-ExxonMobil agreement has been handled illustrates the divisions within the Presidency and the growing view that Buhari is not genuinely in charge of decision making. Significantly, his communication team appears to be working for different factions. Adesina issued the announcement of the permission, while Shehu declared that Buhari’s approval had been reversed and he appears to be working with the more powerful group within in the Presidency.

In this specific case, it appears that the Deputy Minister of Petroleum, Timipre Sylva, who supported the agreement, initially used his influence to convince Buhari to approve it. This decision and statement caught the NNPC and the NUPRC, who oppose the contract, by surprise. NNPC’s CEO Mele Kyari fought back and, together with the NUPRC, convinced Buhari to rescind his previous consent, by utilising the more powerful arm of the Presidency and then Shehu to convey the message.

Since he rarely speaks publicly, it is extremely difficult to determine Buhari’s actual position on these issues. Most of his communications with the public are handled by spokesmen who appear to be working at cross-purposes, which therefore envelopes the Presidency in a mist of ambiguity and confusion. This is not the first time in which it has issued contradictory statements. Similar circumstances occurred when Sinopec’s Addax Petroleum had four OMLs withdrawn and then reinstated by the Presidency in 2021 before being cancelled again this year by the NUPRC.

In the run-up to the APC primaries, there was a controversial situation in which APC chairman Abdullahi Adamu (b.1946) announced that Buhari had endorsed Senate president Ahmad Lawan as the party’s consensus presidential candidate. The APC governors opposed the decision and persuaded the president to reverse his position, despite never having expressed a personal opinion. In each case, communication was conducted via intermediaries who claimed to represent the president.

The current cloud of uncertainty around Buhari can also be linked to the fact that his current Chief of Staff, Ibrahim Gambari, is not as influential as his late predecessor, Abba Kyari, who had the president’s complete trust and could act on his behalf. This does not appear to be the case with Gambari and has resulted in the creation of alternative power blocs that tend to influence Buhari’s actions. 

The dispute surrounding the Seplat-ExxonMobil transaction is expected to cast a shadow of uncertainty on the oil and gas industry as well as raise doubts about Buhari’s ability to make independent decisions. As his second term in office winds down, these controversies are likely to grow as the various power blocs vie for influence.