Nigeria’s three major political parties have recruited senior lawyers in the forthcoming legal fight to overturn the results of the 25 February 2023 presidential election. At least 89 have been assembled including by the winner, the ruling All Progressives Congress’ (APC) Bola Ahmed Tinubu, who is also contesting the results in those areas where he lost. No post-1999 presidential election has ever been overturned so it will prove difficult for the opposition Labour Party and People’s Democratic Party (PDP) to do so. 

The legal challenge has already got off to a precarious start after the Court of Appeal ruled that the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) was permitted to reconfigure its Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) which is used to identify accredited voters. The opposition parties are concerned that this will wipe out the data that is crucial to their pending legal challenge. 

The INEC’s lack of credibility has increased because of its supervision of the 2023 presidential election. This is likely to enhance the risk of violence at the rescheduled gubernatorial elections which will now take place on 18 March. The parties and voters will be less tolerant if the INEC is unable to transmit the results in real time from the polling stations to its website and, as a result, its local officials could be assaulted by voters at polling units. 

The PDP is demanding the resignation of the INEC chairman, Yakubu Mahmood, as well as his investigation and incarceration by the Department of State Security (DSS), for deliberately sabotaging the uploading of the election results to manipulate them in favour of the APC. The Labour Party is also threatening to call on its supporters to occupy INEC offices across the country to protest its refusal to abide by a court ruling to grant it access to election-related materials. 

The judicial system will come under increased scrutiny during the election challenge process. In earlier cases the Supreme Court has previously appeared to deliver judgments that are solely based on technical problems rather than alleged manipulation. The youthful supporters of Labour Party’s candidate Peter Obi are likely to protest if a similar approach is taken in the current presidential election case. Unless the court allows the merits of the case to determine its decision it will risk losing its remaining credibility. 

Meanwhile, the widespread insecurity, which seemed to have temporarily subsided prior to the election — possibly because of the implementation of the Naira banknote redesign policy which has now been suspended — now appears to have remerged. It suggests that Tinubu will face formidable obstacles in his early days in office unless he can get an immediate grip on the situation. During the past week nine people were kidnapped in Abuja and 30 were murdered in the Northeast’s Borno State. Tinubu will have to obtain some early security successes if he is to boost the peoples’ confidence in his leadership.