Plans by the largest opposition party, CHADEMA, to hold a series of demonstrations and public meetings around the country starting on 1 September, have put it on a collision course with the state and its security services. The campaign has been called UKUTA – the Swahili acronym for the Alliance Against Dictatorship in Tanzania. The campaign stems principally from President John Magufuli’s declaration of the end of politics on 24 June, when he declared that no public political meetings would be allowed. By 30 July, this directive had been relaxed, allowing meetings to be held by elected politicians, but only in their own constituencies.

If put into action, this policy could make the opposition irrelevant and strengthen the ruling CCM’s position, suggesting that the opposition will likely be looking for ways to overcome the bans. There is therefore a very real risk that Tanzania could enter a period of instability, as it did in 2011 and 2012. At that time, CHADEMA called a series of demonstrations initially to protest the result of the 2010 election. These led to a number of deaths at the hands of police in Arusha, Iringa, Morogoro and Singida. Parallel to this there was a rash of minor outbreaks of civil unrest across the country, not connected to party politics.

Since 24 June there has been a ratcheting up of tension between CHADEMA and the state. Regional Commissioners across the country, as well as senior police officers, are echoing the president’s diktat. This reached a peak on 29 June, with the arrest of prominent CHADEMA politician, Tundu Lissu, MP for the Singida East constituency. He was arrested by the police’s Regional Commanding Officer at a public rally, and transported to Dar es Salaam where he was detained, questioned, and finally charged with three counts of incitement. He was finally granted bail on 5 August at a heavily guarded sitting of Kisutu Magistrates Court in the centre of Dar es Salaam.

Less high profile arrests have also been made. On the eve of a visit by President Magufuli to Geita Region on 6 August, two CHADEMA officials were arrested at their hotel and charged with incitement via social media. This followed the arrest the previous Wednesday, 3 August, in Mbeya of two more CHADEMA supporters, again for incitement via social media. Tundu Lissu too is being investigated for his use of social media. The Singida Regional Police Commander told reporters last week that they had approached the Tanzania Communications Regulatory Authority to see if his social media accounts could be closed.