[UPDATE – On Friday 17 April – five days after this article was originally written – it was announced that Abba Kyari had died of COVID-19]

The Presidency has not yet issued an official statement about the whereabouts of the president’s Chief of Staff, Abba Kyari, who is undergoing treatment after testing positive for coronavirus. Initial rumours that he had died have stopped after his family dismissed them and the latest speculation is that he has tested negative twice for COVID-19 and is now recuperating from the illness.

This has not been confirmed by the Presidency. The news that he tested negative was released to the media by close presidential sources on 6 April in order to end the increasing speculation that he had died. Since then, however, little has been heard about his recovery or the date of his possible discharge from the unknown London hospital where he is being treated.

Because he is in his 70s, there have been increasing questions about whether he will fully recover and be strong enough to continue his hectic duties at the Presidential Villa where he is one of President Buhari’s closest confidants. There is considerable speculation that, even if he fully recovers, he is unlikely to want to return to his post even if Buhari wants him back. The illness may already have taken a heavy toll on him because of his age.

There are already rumours about a search for a replacement with the highly experienced Babagana Kingibe (b.1945) widely named as a potential successor. He previously served as: Minister of Foreign Affairs (1993-1995); Internal Affairs (1995-1997); Power and Steel (1997-1998); and then as the very influential Secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF) between 2007 and 2008. He was also the vice-presidential candidate for the Social Democratic Party in the 1993 presidential elections. The challenge with Kingibe, however, is that, unlike Kyari, he is highly political and could want to use the position to influence the country’s political direction if he is appointed. Kingibe will not be subtle in his political interference and could end up highly politicising the position and it is unclear if Buhari would want this.

The most likely scenario is that, if Abba Kyari is unable to return to his position, Buhari is unlikely to name a replacement any time soon. He tends to work very closely with people he trusts and Kyari has been quite dependable so finding a replacement will be challenging. His kitchen cabinet include: Mamman Daura (b.1939) who, despite being Buhari’s nephew, is older than the president (b.1942); his friend, Isa Funtua, who is the father of Buhari’s son-in-law; and Kingibe. They are close and could be depended on to continue to provide informal guidance. Even more significantly, however, Buhari already has a lot of close relatives working with him at the Presidential Villa who could easily unofficially step into Kyari’s role in his absence. Buhari will almost certainly continue working with the current group around him for a long time before considering a formal replacement for Kyari if he has to do so.

This excerpt is taken from Nigeria Politics & Security, our weekly intelligence report on Nigeria. Click here to receive a free sample copy.