President Bola Tinubu is about to enter the third year of his presidency which is the most crucial period for him to show that he deserves a second term. This pressure will increase as the politicking for the 2027 presidential elections starts to take shape. There will be several developments that will shape and influence Nigeria in 2025 which will determine whether Tinubu will survive a 2027 challenge to his power. 

2025 will be a period of political alignments and re-alignments as the major political players start positioning for the 2027 elections. Even though the country has faced a significant cost-of-living crisis, which is directly attributable to the economic policies that have been implemented by Tinubu, the political momentum is still on the side of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) which continues to win elections. The opposition is in disarray, weakened, and unable to unite to challenge the APC. 

The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Labour Party, and New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) will probably attempt to join forces next year. Because all three are so internally divided, however, it is likely that only some factions of the three will be able to form an alliance and this will not be formidable enough to challenge the APC. The two leading opposition politicians — Labour’s Peter Obi and the PDP’s Atiku Abubakar — are unlikely to join forces because of their disagreements on who will be the main presidential candidate in any such arrangement. 

The opposition parties will be further weakened by a rush of defections. Labour and PDP lawmakers are likely to join the APC which will further weaken both parties. Labour is likely to be most affected and the party may go into the 2027 elections with less than half the National Assembly seats it won in 2023. 

Among opposition governors, the chances of Rivers State’s Siminalayi Fubara being impeached before the end of 2025 remain very high. He is likely to lose some of the legal battles that have stopped his impeachment and this will pave the way for him to be removed from office. That may create a political crisis in the state and increase the risk of attacks on oil facilities but not enough to significantly disrupt production. 

President Tinubu will have the opportunity to appoint a new chairman for the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) by November 2025 when the tenure of the current chairman Mahmood Yakubu expires. He is expected to appoint someone who is loyal and from the Southwest and give him an easy victory. This is mainly because little progress will be made on current attempts to amend the Electoral Act. The process is expected to drag on until the end of Tinubu’s first term with only token amendments allowed which will not fundamentally change the way elections are currently conducted. 

The state of President Tinubu’s health remains one of the biggest political risks Nigeria faces in 2025. It is common knowledge that he is unwell, but unclear what illness has forced him to frequently travel to both France and the UK for medical treatment. There is always the risk that his health will deteriorate in a way that incapacitates him, triggering a political crisis because he has chosen not to hand over power to Vice President Kashim Shettima whenever he leaves the country. 

Tensions between the two men will increases and especially if there is an indication that Tinubu does not want to run with Shettima in 2027. He ran on the Muslim-Muslim ticket in 2023 because he wanted to appeal to ordinary voters in the North. The cost-of-living crisis and other policies which have made him unpopular in the region, means that Tinubu must depend on the South to win the next election. A Muslim-Muslim ticket is less appealing because of the Christian majority in the South. This may mean that Tinubu will consider choosing a Christian from the North as his running mate in 2027. This will increase the existing tensions with Shettima ahead of the 2027 polls.

The December 2024 issue of Nigeria Focus also includes the following:

Spotlight

• Outlook for 2025: politics focuses on positioning ahead of 2027 elections
• Implications

Politics & Society

• Abubakar’s case for another shot at the presidency fails to convince
• Ghana election raises false hopes for PDP
• Defections mount ahead of 2027 elections

Economy & Finance

• Why Tinubu needs his tax reforms
• Numbers
• Inflation jumps in November as upside risk persists

Energy Sector

• Chappal and Seplat conclude asset deals
• Four-year high in oil production is not what NNPC claimed
• NNPCL loses out in licensing round
• Why Dangote is in court to stop petrol imports
• Shell’s Bonga North FID helps asset sale

Security

• Mass abductions and explosions test military in Zamfara