Tackling Nigeria’s economic woes and consolidating authority over the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) is pressuring Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari to adopt a more flexible stance towards some of the dissidents in the party.
The threat of a mooted new political entity – the so-called mega-party led by former vice-president Atiku Abubakar and former governor of Lagos State Bola Tinubu – has concentrated minds in the presidency at Aso Rock.
The view from the presidency is that Atiku and Tinubu are now semi-detached from the APC but that most other dissidents can still be kept within the party fold. This will entail cutting some short-term deals, accounting for Buhari’s willingness to work with Senate president Bukola Saraki: first, the government needs legislative support to pursue his policies; and second, Buhari’s team wants to discourage other dissidents from leaving the party.
Saraki, who has been facing legal problems over his asset declarations, was initially under pressure after the APC’s national victory last year. Since then he has been able to strengthen his negotiating position with Buhari as the ruling party’s problems have multiplied elsewhere.
For now, Atiku and Tinubu constitute the biggest threat to Buhari’s leadership of the APC, and to the party’s broad coalition of support. Atiku, who has nurtured the political support base of the Yar’Adua family in northern Nigeria, is a wealthy businessman and a canny politician.
Now he is eyeing a run for the presidency in 2019. Atiku would prefer to stay within the APC but openly doubts that there would be a free contest for the nomination if, as seems likely, Buhari runs for a second term.
Accordingly, he has been making common cause with Tinubu, who did so much to pull in support for Buhari and the APC from Lagos State and the southwest last year. The two have met on several occasions outside Nigeria in the past month but refuse to elaborate on their political ambitions.
Their spokespeople have vehemently denied reports about the mega-party. Although some sources in the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), or at least the PDP faction loyal to Ahmed Makarfi, have suggested that such a new formation would reinvigorate national politics.
