The judiciary was involved in a controversial decision or, rather, non-decision on 19 October on the case filed by Senate president, Bukola Saraki, who was challenging his trial by the Code of Conduct Tribunal (see Nigeria Politics & Security). The judges failed to appear in court on the morning they intended to deliver judgement. No reason was given for the postponement, and no new date fixed. The event led to speculation that the judges had come under pressure from the presidency and governor of Kaduna State, Nasir El-Rufai, to delay the decision. This was in response to other, unconfirmed, speculation that the trial judges at the appeal court have also been externally influenced to stop Saraki’s trial.

El-Rufai’s name has been mentioned repeatedly around Saraki’s case, a reflection of the battle within the All Progressives Congress (APC) for the 2019 presidency. Saraki and El-Rufai are likely to be the two leading candidates for the APC’s presidential ticket, if President Muhammadu Buhari decides not to run for a second term. El-Rufai is a close Buhari confidant and there is a feeling that he is using this position to ensure potential challengers to his ambitions are stopped.

With the Court of Appeal’s failure to deliver a judgment on his case, Saraki was forced to appear before the Code of Conduct Tribunal on 21 October. Perhaps to underscore that he has the support of the Senate in his trial – which many senators say is politically motivated – about 81 senators accompanied Saraki to the court. The Senate was shut for the day. Some suggested that the shutdown was to prevent the deputy Senate president, Ike Ekweremadu, an opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) member, from presiding over the screening of ministerial nominees.

However, Dino Melaye, the Senate spokesperson explained that the postponement of plenary had nothing to do with Ekweremadu. Ekweremadu was in court with Saraki, an indication that he may have supported the decision to put the Senate sitting on hold. But with the Court of Appeal yet to deliver its judgment on the jurisdiction of the Code of Conduct Tribunal to continue the trial, the tribunal was adjourned until 5 November. It is not certain whether the trial will continue if the Court of Appeal has not pronounced a judgment before that date. Legal practitioners who spoke to Nigeria Politics & Security say the Nigerian Supreme Court had ruled that, where a matter is pending at the Court of Appeal, the lower court has to put the trial on hold until a decision is reached at the higher level.

It has been reported in the media that Saraki has been offered a soft landing, if he toes the party line. Saraki has reportedly been told that a ‘political solution’ could be arranged for his trial if there is a change in the Senate leadership with Senate Majority leader Ali Ndume stepping down and being replaced by the APC’s preferred candidate, Ahmed Lawan. Ndume, unsurprisingly, is said to have rejected the arrangement that would see him lose his position. However, if, as this speculation suggests, Saraki’s trial is not conclusively decided in the courts, it will be a blow to the credibility of Buhari’s anti-corruption war and the judiciary’s.