As the collapse of President Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria reverberates around the region, questions are inevitably being asked about what these changes will mean for other Middle East states including Libya. Most notable in this respect is growing speculation about what Russia might do regarding Libya now that it is on the way to losing its foothold in Syria. 

This includes the possible loss of its bases in the country. The Tartus naval base is Russia’s only formal overseas naval base and Moscow has used it to project power into the Mediterranean and counter NATO‘s regional influence. It has also been using Tartus as a hub to support its presence in Africa, by transporting military equipment and weapons from there, via Libya through Tobruk, and into the Sahel. These bases have been indispensable to Russia’s current modus operandi in Africa. 

Tartus is still under Russian control, but its naval ships were temporarily evacuating the base. If it is forced to withdraw from Tartus it will lose its only official access to the Mediterranean Sea. Some analysts therefore believe that Russia will increasingly look to Libya and will seek to consolidate its military presence there as an alternative. 

There have been reports that Russia was already bolstering its military capabilities in Libya over the past year with more military transport aircraft, upgraded runways, bolstered perimeter defences, and new buildings. There has been an increasingly close relationship with the eastern warlord, Khalifa Haftar, who heads the Libyan Arab Armed Forces (LAAF). Moscow has had revamped facilities at the Braq Al-Shatti military base (Libya Focus, May 2024), which enabling military aircraft to land at the facility, which had been left unused for years. 

Rumours that Tobruk will replace Tartus

The suggestion is that Russia will now try to expand this presence even further, including by establishing a naval base at Tobruk, through which it is already said to have transported successive cargoes of weaponry in recent months. According to a 2023 Bloomberg report, it has previously mooted the idea of using Tobruk as a maritime base, allegedly offering to provide air defence systems and pilot training to Haftar’s LAAF in exchange for the base. It is now claimed that Tobruk could become Moscow’s alternative to Tartus, enabling it to retain access to the Mediterranean. 

Given Haftar’s increasingly close relations with Moscow, it would make sense for Russia to try to increase its military presence, including by establishing a Mediterranean naval base. However, the situation in Libya is not comparable to that of Syria. There is no central authority or single government with which it can sign a formal treaty or agreement for such a base, and the infrastructure at somewhere like Tobruk does not compare to that of Tartus, where Russia spent years developing the base. 

More importantly perhaps, Haftar is not President Bashar al-Assad. Firstly, he is not under any immediate threat and thus does not need Russia to defend him. Secondly, Haftar is shrewd enough not to become over reliant or to be definitely pigeonholed as being in the pro-Russia camp. He prefers to deal with all sides, moving between Moscow and Washington, and ultimately relying on Egypt and the UAE as his core backers. This is not to suggest that he is not keen on forging closer ties with Russia. However, he is unlikely to accept a naval base on Libyan soil because of the backlash that would ensue. 

Thus, while events in Syria may make Moscow look more closely at the idea, Tobruk is not going to be a substitute for Tartus, nor is Libya going to be a substitute for Syria.

The December 2024 issue of Libya Focus also includes the following:

Politics

• Presidency Council continues to provoke the east…
• Profile: Ziad Daghim
• Wilton Park meeting causes upset in Libya…
• Saif al-Islam claims election victory…

Foreign Relations

• Post-Syria options for Russia…

Security

• More human rights abuses in the east…

Energy & Economy

• Furore over Bengdara’s alleged dual-nationality…
• Leaked Audit Office report highlights extent of corruption…