After a period in which Morocco has chalked up a series of foreign policy successes — most notably mending its relations with Spain and Germany — this month has seen its relationship with Tunisia catapulted into crisis. While there are undoubtedly purely bilateral reasons, it may also be part of a campaign to remind Tunis that it is extremely dependent on Algerian gas imports and tourists and that these could be jeopardised until it supports Algiers in its bitter rivalry with Rabat. 

The crisis erupted at the 8^th Tokyo International Conference on African Development (TICAD) which took place in Tunis on 27-28 August. To Morocco’s surprise and displeasure a delegation from the partially internationally recognised and self-declared Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic (SADR) — the political wing of the indigenous Polisario Front seeking to end Morocco’s occupation of the disputed Western Sahara — was party to the conference. 

Even worse for Rabat, the Polisario Front’s Secretary-General Brahim Ghali, who headed the SADR delegation, was officially welcomed by Tunisia’s President Kaïs Saïed. He personally received Ghali at the airport which prompted Moroccan accusations that Ghali had been treated as if he were a head of state. This was all the more disconcerting because Tunisia has never officially recognised SADR.

Rabat immediately lashed out and announced that it was withdrawing its participation in the TICAD summit. The Foreign Ministry issued a strongly worded statement accusing Tunis of having, ‘multiplied its negative attitude and acts’ towards the Kingdom and its interests. It claimed that Tunisia had unilaterally invited the SADR delegation to the summit, and that this ran contrary to Japan’s stance towards the SADR which it described as a ‘secessionist entity.’

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Morocco’s relations with Tunisia will remain under strain in the near term but could revert to normal before too long. Much will depend on President Kaïs Saïed and how far he is willing to go to depart from Tunisia’s longstanding neutrality and support Algeria’s position on the Western Sahara. However, neither Morocco nor Tunisia can afford to be at loggerheads for long. 

Despite the bitter relations between the two countries King Mohamed VI looks likely to attend the Arab League summit in Algiers in November. Although such a development could set the wheels in motion for a rapprochement between the two neighbouring states, this is doubtful and bilateral relations are unlikely to recover in the short-term. 

The success of the second round of the social dialogue between the government, the trade unions and the employers’ confederations will reflect well on Prime Minister Aziz Akhannouch and his government. So too will the new government measures — including the increase in the minimum wage — which were introduced at the start of September.

However, there are still many outstanding issues and gaps that need plugging, and ordinary Moroccans will continue to face serious difficulties in coping with the cost of living crisis. While the social dialogue is likely to go some way towards averting strikes and social protests, it is unlikely to completely prevent them. The government will need to do more, and especially regarding fuel price increases, in order to contain the potential for social unrest. 

The 15 September signing of the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) on the Nigeria-Morocco Gas Pipeline (NMGP) marks a positive development and should help the project inch closer towards becoming a reality.

The September 2022 issues of Morocco Focus also includes the following:

Foreign Relations

• Relations with Tunisia are plunged into crisis
• Fear of a new Franco-Algerian-Tunisian alliance
• King may attend Arab League Summit in Algiers

Politics & Society

• Social dialogue talks yield some results
• Appeal upheld against female blogger

Security

• Terror motive for attack is dismissed

Economy

• Nigeria-Morocco Gas Pipeline (NMGP) MoU signed in Rabat