Concerns over President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s (a.k.a. Lula) health, which first surfaced in October when he was reported to have suffered a head wound as a result of a domestic fall, have come back into play. On 9 December he complained of a severe headache and, after an MRI scan, was hospitalised. He subsequently underwent two rounds of surgery at São Paulo’s Sirio-Libanés Hospital. Doctors performed a craniotomy, removing part of the skull to ease pressure and allow treatment of a brain bleed. On 12 December doctors said it had been successful, and that Lula was ‘lucid’ and conversing with medical staff. The 79-year-old president was discharged a few days later and he is resuming his presidential duties.

Depending on how Lula’s health evolves, there are various political scenarios. Government officials and members of Lula’s left wing Partido dos Trabalhadores (PT) insist that that a ‘business as usual’ scenario will now play out: after a few days to recover, he will continue as an active and engaged figure at the centre of government. In this optimistic scenario, Lula remains a likely candidate for re-election in 2026 which, if successful, would be his fourth non-consecutive presidential term. However, health complications might instead rule out re-election, meaning Lula would be limited to completing the current term in 2025 and 2026. During his current absence Vice President Geraldo Alckmin — who also serves as Minister of Trade and Industry — has been standing in. If Lula’s health problems prove be more prolonged, Alckmin could deputise for a longer period. A political transition stretching over a longer period of time would be manageable, but would still lead to a degree of investor nervousness. 

Leftist parties worry they are off target

There is soul-searching on the left of the political spectrum because of Lula’s illness and its poor performance in the recent municipal elections. Various politicians and analysts point out that, if Lula has to step down or decides not to run in 2026, there is no-one who can immediately take his place. Lula has personally spoken of the need for ‘renewal’ on the left. Carlos Melo, a politics professor at the Insper business school told the Financial Times that the ruling PT is not ready to function without Lula’s leadership ‘not in 2026, or even after that.’ There are new faces on the left, such as Recife’s Mayor João Campos (b.1993), but one consultant said he is too young and therefore probably someone to watch for after 2030. 

Another, Hold Assessoria Legislativa’s Andre Cesar, says ‘The left in Brazil has to recycle itself. It has to modernise, look to [Chile’s president Gabriel] Boric. Become more entrepreneurial. Important sectors of the Workers’ Party still have not understood this’. One younger leftist politician, Guilherme Boulos of the Partido Socialismo e Liberdade (PSOL) has admitted that — as manufacturing jobs are replaced by services, the ‘gig economy’ and self-employment — these parties are struggling to retain their traditional voters in the C and D socio-economic classes (Brazil Focus November 2024). Some suggest the left should be raising new issues, such as a proposal to reduce the working week from six to five days, and from 44 to 36 hours

Edinho Silva — the mayor of Araraquara in São Paulo State, who is expected to be elected PT’s president next year — has called for the party to reconnect with its rank and file and with the working class if it wants to remain ’relevant.’ He said that the growth of conservative evangelical Christians on the outskirts of large cities was eroding support for left wing parties. He told Reuters that ‘Today, motorcycle delivery drivers are the largest professional category in Brazil. But how do we talk to them? They are not in unions and they have difficulty understanding their class identity.’ Silva added ‘We have to be more relevant to the real lives of people.’ He also wondered whether ‘we did not make it clear how bad the situation was in Brazil when President Lula took office, and we are paying the price for that now.’

The December 2024 issue of Brazil Focus also includes the following:

Politics

• Renewed concern over Lula
• Federal police bring new charges linked to attempted coup in 2022
• Abortion law may become more restrictive
• Leftist parties worry they are off target

Taking the Pulse

• Predicting the effect of Trump’s tariff plans

Foreign Relations

• Doubts over Mercosur ‘breakthrough’
• G20 – Lula scores 1 out of 3

Security

• Amazon region is the most violent
• Gun control lobby faces big challenges
• US sets out further anti-corruption powers

Economy & Business

• Fiscal package triggers financial market nervousness
• Obesity creates drug sales opportunity
• Record year for tourism

Environment

• Congress approves carbon trading scheme

Energy Sector

• Deal done on imports of Argentine gas
• Petrobras sees a fossil fuel future