Although the Presidency Council was able to move from Abu Sitta Naval Base to the Prime Minister’s Office and hold meetings there for the first time last week, nearly eight months after the Libyan political agreement was signed in Morocco in December 2015. The agreement itself has not been enshrined in the Constitutional Declaration of August 2011, and the resulting Government of National Accord (GNA) has not been able to take over governance of Libya comprehensively. Last week, there were no further indications that the House of Representatives (House) intended to vote on the GNA or an amendment. From 16 to 17 July, members of the Libyan political dialogue process, the Presidency Council and the GNA and the international community met in Tunis to discuss ways of overcoming the impasse.

UN Special Envoy Martin Kobler spent the days before the Tunis talks shuttling between Cairo and Brussels, trying to gain support for unifying solutions to end the political crisis from interested regional parties like the UAE and Egypt, as well as European partners. One of the eastern representatives in the Presidency Council, Fathi Majberi, also met separately with senior Italian officials in Rome ahead of the talks to discuss how Italy could ramp up assistance to help overcome the political impasse. Of primary concern has been the future of the military, and specifically the role of controversial General Khalifa Haftar’s role in Libya’s future. Libyan leaders from across interest groups began to arrive in Tunis on 15 July, including pro-Muslim Brotherhood Justice and Construction Party head Mohammad Sawan, former High National Elections Commission chairman and rumoured pro-Islamist Nouri Al-Abbar, former national dialogue leader Fadel Lamen, former Qadhafi-era ambassador to Italy Hafed Gaddour, and dialogue leaders Emhemed Shoiab, Naima Jibril and Saleh Makhzoum. GNA Prime Minister Fayez Serraj and his deputy Ahmed Maiteg were present as well.

Meeting on 16 July had an inauspicious start. Firstly, meetings began late as international participants reacted to the attempted coup in Turkey. The fact that the meetings had to be conducted in Tunis, rather than in Libya, illustrated just how divided the country is over the fate of the political dialogue, the political dialogue participants in particular, and the GNA. In the days before the talks, Maltese Foreign Minister George Vella undermined the pro-unity tone of the event when he publicly criticised the GNA for not living up to local and international expectations. A consultative session prior to the general meeting with international observers ended acrimoniously, with GNA members reportedly storming out of conference rooms. During the opening sessions of the meetings, Kobler lamented that he had tried multiple times to contact Haftar, who refused to meet with him before the Tunis talks. Indeed, photographs from the first day of talks showed many empty seats in the dialogue chamber, possibly indicating that there is less and less appetite for dialogue between interest groups as the political crisis deteriorates.

There were also reports from eastern Libya that politicians there had disavowed the delegation representing the House in the political dialogue, meaning that even if there were agreement breakthroughs in Tunis, it would be difficult to implement them, especially in the east. Also the House’s opposition to the Tunis talks could undermine any solutions the outcomes of the meeting suggest, as the House still needs to approve the GNA. Presidency Council head Fayez Serraj was also photographed meeting one-on-one with controversial Libyan Ambassador to the UAE Aref Nayed, who previously had aspirations to hold Serraj’s own position, and who many pro-Islamist groups suspected of trying to control Libya in order to purge the country of Islamist political parties and other groups. Despite these challenges, there were reports from sources in Tunis that the talks had taken on a more conciliatory tone on 17 July, especially after rival central bank governors Sadeq Elkabir and Ali Hibri met, and that expectations were rising that the meetings would result in concrete plans to end the crisis.