The current prospect of Libya holding national elections remains slim because there are no real indications that the incumbent Government of National Unity (GNU) is actively working to implement them. The manoeuvring and plans of all the main domestic stakeholders — designed to preserve the status-quo rather than being good-faithed attempts at accelerating the political process — is being denounced by some domestic and foreign observers. Similarly, the alternate call for dialogue from the parallel premier Fathi Bashagha is a continuation of a sustained campaign to overcomplicate the political process, rather than the genuine effort to cater to the aspirations of average Libya citizens as he has claimed. When mentioning elections, Bashagha has shifted his position from promising to hold them 14 months after his appointment — as postulated by the House of Representatives’ (House) political roadmap — to now leaving the time-frame open-ended by saying that they will take place ‘when the time is right.’ 

Bashagha’s strategy, which has developed over the last two years, began taking shape in early 2020 when, as the then Government of National Accord’s (GNA) interior minister — he signed the Defence Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Türkiye. He understood early on that Ankara would be serious in its military intervention and would succeed in its mission to protect Tripoli from the April 2019 siege of the capital launched by Khalifa Haftar’s Libyan Arab Armed Forces (LAAF). He also understood that Türkiye would probably not intervene in order to help the GNA defeat Haftar by launching an offensive against the east. 

Politically, the fact that Haftar remained an important influential figure after the October 2020 ceasefire agreement, created an opportunity for Bashagha to ally himself with House of Representatives’ powerful speaker Aguila Saleh and emerge as a reconciliatory figure. His plan failed in February 2021, however, when Abdulhamid Dbeibah’s team unexpectedly defeated the Bashagha-Saleh team. The latter was expected to win the Libyan Political Dialogue Forum’s (LPDF) selection process for prime minister which was coordinated by the UN Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL). A year later Bashagha persuaded Haftar and his sons to join in a powerful alliance with Saleh. 

Both sides are continuing to try and undermine the other’s agenda and various foreign actors with a stake in the country’s political transition, including the UN, now find themselves slowly catering to one side or the other. The UN in particular lacks the trust of Libyans as a result of several strategic policy changes since last year. In April a Joint Committee of the parliament and the High State Council (HSC) met in Cairo — and are expected to meet again in the coming weeks for further consultations — but there is a growing feeling that a new political deal probably needs to be designed. Throughout the past week there have been several unconfirmed rumours of a new plan by UNSMIL’s newly appointed Special Envoy, Abdoulaye Bathily, to gather 50 political figures and form a new dialogue forum. 

Diverging from the LPDF’s previous blueprint, it would not be another power-sharing agreement based on the realities on the ground which would be likely to be contested after a few months. Instead, it would focus on: 

• drafting a constitutional basis which would provide the guarantees for the functioning of the political system; 
• resolving the executive authority issue; and 
• designing a clear pathway for elections. 

Steering the narrative back towards elections is vitally important because the majority of Libyans are very keen to vote since they realise that the incumbent political elite have failed them for the past decade.

A ‘new LPDF’ could provide a conciliatory package that would be the core of a new political deal. But the question remains: how will Bathily achieve this aim without a real push from the country’s most influential political and social figures, which only perpetuates the idea that foreign interference is the root cause of Libya’s crisis?