This is an excerpt from an article in our weekly Libya Politics and Security publication.

Late on 27 October, a helicopter carrying around 23 Libya Dawn security officials was shot down in western Libya between Zawiya and Tripoli. The helicopter was reportedly on its way back to Tripoli after transporting salaries to the western town of Surman. Two of the passengers on the flight were high-ranking commanders, Colonel Hussein Abu Diyya (head of the Libya Dawn coalition’s western operations room) and Colonel Salem Saqr (the military commander of the western region).

The reactions were immediate. The Warshafana tribe, who reside in the area where the attack occurred (Al-Maya, about 30 km west of Tripoli), immediately denied responsibility. But the Warshafana are the only group in the area with the opportunity and motive to conduct such an attack. Tensions have been high between Warshafana and Zawiya, the home to some of the top commanders on the flight, after devastating fighting in the Warshafana area last year which was led by Zawiyan forces.  Warshafana leaders have also been accused by Libya Dawn of being sympathetic to the former regime of Muammar Qadhafi.

As the attack threatened to exacerbate the deep rifts between the western Libyan factions, their rivals in the east (organised as the Libyan National Army (LNA) initially sought to take credit before senior commanders from the LNA later denied any involvement. There were also rumours that the former Libya Islamic Fighting Group (LIFG) emir Abdelhakim Belhadj, or other extremists, had shot down the helicopter to eliminate the moderate Libya Dawn commanders on board the aircraft.

It is just as plausible that the incident was an accident, given the multi-faceted nature of the Libyan war, but one that will have profound consequences given the identity of those who died.

With no one taking responsibility for the attack, Libya Dawn sought to rally its forces as it prepared for an offensive. It also declared Warshafana a military zone, with the apparent intention of carrying out a retaliatory attack.

For its part, the General National Congress also declared war in western Libya and announced an end to the many local ceasefires in the region. These had been one of the few achievements of the political dialogue over the past year. The Congress also set up a new operations room for the western region to co-ordinate new offensives, directly overseen by the western Prime Minister Khalifa Ghwell. After months of ceasefires and suppressed activity, the array of militias in western Libya now seem to be back on a war footing.

This event, and the violent reactions to it, occurred in the context of a creeping LNA advance towards Tripoli from the west. This could prove to be a tipping point in the conflict on the western front. Although the powerful Misratan militias condemned the helicopter attack and requested that the Congress respond, they have refused to deploy to the area. Without this support, it is possible the Libya Dawn camp does not have the capacity necessary to resist a rapid LNA advance should that take place. LNA reinforcements arrived in the area on 1 November, along with a resupply of weapons and ammunition.