On 13-14 February eight small earthquakes were recorded in Algeria of which three were in the country itself and five in the wider region. Algeria Politics & Security’s author wrote an article in June 2015 entitled ‘Algeria and the threat of natural disasters’ which warned that one of the major threats facing the regime was another massive earthquake. Menas Associates also drew attention to this threat (Algeria Politics & Security 11.10.19). 

Algeria’s last big earthquake was in 2003 when a 6.8 magnitude one in the Boumerdès region claimed 2,271 lives. A 7.3 one had occurred at Chlef in 1980 which killed around 3,500 and the same town had been destroyed by a 6.8 magnitude quake in 1954.

Abdelkrim Chelghoum — an earthquake engineering expert and director of the Université des sciences et de la technologie Houari-Boumediene (USTHB) at Bab-Ezzouar — issued the same warning in October 2019. He said that a 7.0 earthquake could devastate Algiers because of the public authorities’ endemic corruption. An estimated 90% of the capital’s real estate infrastructure projects had been built on unsuitable sites. Such building was banned in 2004 but walis, housing ministers and other officials have ignored the law and the warning.

With that thought in mind, the regime should look at the parallels between the Turkish and Algerian governments and their respective responses to the known threats of massive earthquakes 

Algeria is ruled by a military dictatorship while Türkiye’s President Erdoğan is a very thin-skinned nationalist autocratic. Erdoğan and his ruling Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi (AK) are, however, subject to elections with the next one being held on 14 May 2023. He and his party may be thrown out because of his government’s poor response to the earthquake. His rush for growth — often facilitated by corrupt AK affiliated businessmen being allowed to ignore new building regulations — exacerbated the destruction and lead to a much higher death toll. There are two main reasons for the escalating anger against Erdoğan. 

One is the question of what has happened to the post-1999 ‘earthquake solidarity taxes’ which were meant to be spent on making buildings earthquake proof. One tax — still paid by mobile phone operators and radio and TV — has brought in around US$4.6 billion into the state’s coffers. It was increased two years ago but the government has never fully explained where the money has been spent. 

The second question relates to the amnesties given to those who ignored the post-1999 building regulations. They have not, however, been observed in the country’s earthquake zones and a 2018 amnesty — which meant that violations could be ignored if a fine was paid — left around six million buildings unsafe. The fines paid for the acquisition of a ‘licence’ to certify that the buildings were now safe brought in billions of dollars. A reported 100,000 amnesty applications were made in the cities affected by last week’s earthquake in which there was huge illegal construction. Other sources give similar figures saying that the amnesties legalised 75,000 previously illegal buildings in southern Türkiye. 

Erdoğan and his party’s economic development policy has been driven by a corrupt construction industry and its hugely wealthy businessmen — akin to Algeria’s oligarchs — with close ties to the ruling party and whose wealth is based on avoiding regulations and capitalising on the government’s amnesties and related policies. Many of the latter also have close ties to Algeria through their links to President Abdelmajid Tebboune when he was the housing minister and now during his presidency when he has once again been reaching out to Türkiye. There are strong suspicions that they have been following similar practices in Algeria where corruption is even greater than Türkiye.

Both countries are located astride earthquake prone zones and are ruled by corrupt regimes. When we discussed these parallels with our Algerian sources this week, two things stood out. One was that corruption in Algeria — especially in regard to such things as the observance of building regulations — is substantially worse than in Türkiye. The second was that, whereas Erdoğan might possibly survive the May elections, the Algerian regime would have no chance of surviving a catastrophe as big as the quakes in Boumerdès in 2003 or Chlef in 1980 or 1954, let alone anything on the scale suffered recently by Türkiye.