A geographically remote meeting a few weeks ago drew the attention of Kazakh media.

Earlier this month, a Malawian online newspaper wrote about the visit of Kazakh deputy foreign minister Yerzhan Ashikbayev to Addis Ababa where the African Union (AU) held its annual summit during the last week of January.

Ashikbayev met his Malawian counterpart George Chaponda who also met Georgia’s deputy foreign minister, David Jalagania.

This geographically remote meeting quickly drew the attention of Kazakh media because Chaponda announced that both Kazakhstan and Georgia were interested in oil and gas exploration activities in Africa.

He also revealed that Malawi’s President Peter Mutharika had recently lifted the ban on all exploration projects on Lake Malawi, which he personally enacted in the second half of 2014 over purported concerns of licensing fraud to the benefit of unnamed IOCs.

It is unclear what exactly was discussed between Ashikbayev and the Malawi representatives at the AU summit because the Kazakh Foreign Ministry has kept the Ethiopia visit shrouded in mystery. It is also worth noting that the border dispute between Malawi and Tanzania over oil exploration in Lake Malawi has escalated in recent months.

In the past, Menas Associates has studied the dispute for one IOC which was considering negotiating for an offshore maritime exploration block offered by Malawi.

KazMunayGas (KMG) has a very limited track record of involvement in foreign E&P projects and conducts the overwhelming majority of its operations in western Kazakhstan. In October 2010, its key KMG Exploration & Production subsidiary, won a joint tender with Korea Gas Corporation (Kogas) to develop the Akkas gas field in Iraq’s western Anbar province, near the Syrian border. However, the failure of the negotiations with the Iraqi Oil Ministry prompted KMG E&P to exit the project.

The company announced its withdrawal in May 2011 but acknowledged that, although the talks had been fruitless, Iraq was at that time still an attractive place to work. Kogas stayed and is now Akkas’s sole international partner – although, because of the combination of collapsing oil prices and the security situation, it is reportedly considering farming down half of its 47% stake in the field.

Meanwhile, also in 2010, KMG E&P joined BG (45%) and Maersk (20%) in UK North Sea licence P1722, which contains the White Bear prospect, giving KMG a 35% stake. Two years earlier KMG and BG had concluded a bilateral cooperation agreement enabling them to work together on international projects. The well was drilled in 2013 but unfortunately turned out to be dry. In its 2014 report, KMG admitted having written off about US$40 million in drilling costs. Then, in April 2014, its representative said that it had been decided to leave the project altogether.

KMG bought the Romania-based Rompetrol — 75% in 2007 and the remaining 25% in 2009 — and renamed it KMG International but it is mainly concentrated in trading and logistics. Given its past overseas experience KMG may be a poor fit for uncertain ventures located far from its familiar Kazakh geology.

A leading Kazakh energy expert, Oleg Yegorov, who is frequently quoted in the local media, says that the only reason KMG might be interested in obtaining an exploration licence in Malawi or in neighbouring countries is the potential boost to its prestige. The current economic situation — with crude oil prices still below US$35 a barrel — looks prohibitive, says Yegorov, who works for the research division of Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Education & Science. Perhaps there was just a problem of translation in Addis Ababa when Ashikbayev shook Chaponda’s hand?