While Islamic State backlash means the group is being pushed out of Benghazi, haunting the outskirts of the city, it remains in control of Derna. But its power to resist Libyan National Army (LNA) forces is limited. Like other militias within Libya, Islamic state (IS) must fight a multi-front battle with a diverse set of opponents, and this renders the movement more diffuse. It is also the case that containing the IS threat from Libya is becoming more of a priority across the international community, with calls for military intervention against the insurgency from both regional states and world powers alike growing more vocal.

Armed Islamism in Libya is far from a homogenous movement, and fractures within it will reduce its collective clout. Khalifa Ghwell, the new Prime Minister of the western Libyan administration which is backed by Islamists, has confirmed his government’s support for the Benghazi Revolutionaries Shura Council (BRSC), an umbrella group of militias based in Benghazi, including the internationally-designated terrorist group Ansar Al-Sharia. At the same time, IS called on the BRSC to distance itself from Ghwell, the Congress, the Muslim Brotherhood, and the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group. This tug of war between Islamists over the powerful group adds another layer of complexity to the Libya Dawn-extremist relationship.

Increasingly, whole families are becoming divided by IS involvements, as IS typically relies on winning over the allegiance of younger members of the Libyan community who feel less beholden to their elders. Due to the strength and perseverance of familial ties in Libya, elders generally maintain loyalty to their sons, whilst being unable to control their actions. As such, it is increasingly difficult to distinguish IS sympathisers from those who have unwanted familial connections to the group as it expands. The son of the western Religious Affairs Minister Embarek Fotmani was reportedly killed fighting alongside IS in the east last week, after Fotmani lost another son fighting with IS in Syria earlier. This illustrates the interwoven, complex relationship between Operation Libya Dawn fighters, the General National Congress government in the west, and extremist groups, including IS.

On 11 April the western government reportedly announced that it had decided to remove material, military, and moral support for revolutionaries’ councils in Derna, Benghazi, and Sirte for containing IS members and for rejecting democracy and peaceful transition. Although copies of this statement have been published widely, other Libya Dawn elements have denied this, and it contradicts later statements made by Ghwell about the BRSC.

The Foreign Minister of the anti-Islamist eastern Libyan government, Mohamed Al-Dairi, also travelled to the UAE last week to meet with UAE Foreign Minister Abdullah bin Zayed and discuss the security situation in Libya. It is likely that Al-Dairi broached the issue of an international force for Libya akin to Operation Decisive Storm (the Saudi-led coalition intervening in Yemen). Prime Minister Abdullah Al-Thanni from the eastern government is also planning to travel to Russia to seek military equipment to fight IS.

There have been other, broader diplomatic initiatives that have been seen as and Islamic State backlash across Libya. Following a meeting with the anti-IS alliance in Jordan on 8 April, the Egyptian foreign Ministry has called on the US-led coalition against IS to intervene against the insurgency in Libya, with the aim of crushing the group altogether, rather than simply pushing it out of the country.

The US announced this week that it would at least double military assistance to Tunisia. This news comes shortly after the US agreement to unfreeze its military aid to Egypt, and the Tunisian decision to re-establish diplomatic relations with Libya and Syria to tackle terrorist threats. Meanwhile, a draft Authorisation for the use of Military Force that could allow intervention in Libya is still under deliberation in the US Congress after being submitted by the Obama administration. There is debate among lawmakers and experts about whether the proposed provisions go too far or not far enough.

*For more information on Libya please see our weekly publication Libya Politics & Security. If you would like to discuss the contents of this article with one of our consultants then please contact us here.