The latest coup d’état in Burkina Faso — which took place on 30 September — was the sixth in the region in 26 months, and suggests that democracy is rapidly losing ground across the Sahel and West Africa. As armed groups, mostly Islamist extremist, spread further across the region and governments consequently lose control of more of their own territories — as in Mali and Burkina Faso — so the threat of more military coups will increase.

As the West tends to renounce military coups and invoke sanctions against them, so such coups inevitably open the door to Russia and its own ruinous brand of imperialism. One positive consequence of this slippery slope down which a spate of countries are sliding down, is obliging both the EU and the US to reassess their military commitments and responsibilities in the region. We therefore anticipate a resumed focus of attention from US AFRICOM, especially on North Africa, the Sahel and West Africa, in the immediate future.

The EU’s restructuring of its elite counterterrorism unit is already revealing how those Sahelian and West African countries which have become prone to military coups, anti-Western sentiment and flirtations with Moscow, are being cut adrift. By contrast, others — such as Mauritania, Niger and Senegal — are likely to benefit from enhanced support.

October’s developments in Chad are likely to have longer-lasting consequences than the latest coup d’état in Burkina Faso, for which the West and international institutions will have some understanding and possibly even sympathy. However, the apparent volte face of Mahamat Déby and his cabal has jeopardised all the anticipated positive transformations that have been expected in Chad over the last 18 months. Unless rapidly reversed, which looks unlikely, Chad is in danger of becoming another pariah state and possible prey for Moscow.

Meanwhile, having defrauded Mauritania throughout his presidency, Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz now appears determined on trying to sabotage all the stability and progress that his departure from office has brought it.

The October 2022 issues of Sahara Focus also includes the following:

Burkina Faso coup

• Burkina Faso becomes Sahel’s latest military coup d’état 
• Damiba’s speech to the UN
• Junta leader agrees to follow previous transition timeline
• Analysts blame Burkina Faso’s deteriorating security 
• Reactions to Traoré’s coup
• Post-coup developments
• Russia likely to take advantage of Traoré’s coup?
• EU set to send mission to post-coup Ouagadougou in bid to pre-empt Russia
• Suspected jihadists kill eleven in ambush

Sahel

• Brussels to restructure future of Sahel’s elite counterterror unit
• The EU’s new military programmes for the Sahel and West Africa
• Paris and Riyadh relaunch strategic dialogue on Sahel

Mali

• Junta leader Col. Assimi Goïta receives new draft Constitution
• Latest military news
• ECOWAS attempts to mediate over 46 detained Ivorian soldiers
• Two dead after Russian plane crash 
• Roadside bombs kill civilians and UN peacekeepers
• New agreement for Australian mining companies 

Niger

• Niger suspends oil exports to Mali 
• Military News
• Protests against foreign troops are banned
• Terrorist killed and others captured in Tillabéri region
• Niger’s deadliest ever rainiest season

• Chad
• A crisis month – on at least two fronts
• Dozens killed in crackdown on anti-government protests 

Mauritania

• Former President Abdel Aziz meeting Mauritanian diaspora in Europe
• US Under Secretary visits Mauritania