Following his re-election, President Donald Trump renewed his previous interest in acquiring Greenland. While this caused controversy, the proposal has undeniably brought the island into the international spotlight.

A scenario involving the US purchase of Greenland is highly improbable given Denmark’s firm ‘not for sale’ stance, and the lack of Greenlandic interest. However, growing interest from foreign entities, and particularly the US, presents Greenland with opportunities to expand cooperative partnerships and attract investment across key sectors including mining, energy and infrastructure. This could yield mutually beneficial outcomes and provide it with a viable path towards its long-sought independence. The outcome of the pivotal 11 March 2025 election could influence Greenland’s geopolitical and economic future.

Historically, several global powers have shown interest in Greenland. Engagement has grown significantly in recent years following Trump’s first term proposal to acquire the island. Recent efforts that have strengthened diplomatic ties include:

• The US, Canada and the European Union have opened consulates/offices in Nuuk;
• Signing the Common Plan for US-Greenland Cooperationin Support of Our Understanding for Pituffik (Thule Air Base);
• A US-Greenland Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) to pursue a joint hyperspectral survey;
• A US$1.2 million US-Greenland agreement to support education for mineral-related careers at the Greenland School of Minerals and Petroleum (KTI);
• A US government push for private mining investment; 
• A US Senate hearing reaffirming bipartisan support to pursue cooperation and engage in interests that favour the American and Greenlandic people;
• A strategic partnership between Greenland and the EU to support sustainable raw material value chains; and 
• Renewing the EU-Greenland sustainable fisheries partnership.

These emphasise the growing recognition of Greenland’s geopolitical, economic and strategic importance.

Greenland’s Strategic Importance

Foreign interest is increasingly being driven by several factors surrounding Greenland’s strategic importance including maintaining Arctic security and exploring resource potential.

Arctic Security: Countering the Sino-Russian Threat

Historically, the Arctic has been quite geopolitically stable. Since 2022, however, security concerns have risen because of increasing Russia-China cooperation in the region. As an example, they have conducted joint military exercises in the Arctic Ocean.

Greenland remains of vital strategic importance to Arctic defence. Due to its unique geographic position and key military infrastructure, the US views it as essential to its own national security. It is home to the US’ Pituffik Space Base which hosts critical surveillance and missile defence systems, and is one of NATO’s key outposts in the Arctic.

The West should continue to pursue additional defence cooperative measures with Greenland to limit Russian and Chinese regional power. Greenland, the US and Denmark intend to discuss expanding defence cooperation and primarily regarding the Pituffik base. Greenland hopes to expand its defence engagement with both the US and Denmark. Some of its goals involving cooperation with Western partners, as outlined in Greenland’s Foreign, Security and Defence Policy 2024-2033, including:

• Establishing an administrative unit dedicated to Pituffik Space Base issues;
• Assuming its share of responsibility in Denmark’s defence agreement; 
• Allowing Greenlandic MPs to become members of the NATO Parliamentary Assembly;
• Founding a centre for peace and cooperation.

Critical Minerals

Discussions on diversifying Greenland’s economy revolve around its extensive but under-explored mineral reserves. Their development will require significant capital and infrastructural investment to make it financially feasible in the long term.

Despite the significant risks, Western partnerships and investment in the mining sector will certainly be worth it in the long term. China’s growing monopoly in critical minerals and increasing export controls are a vital national security issue. Public and private sector investment in Greenland could help reduce the long-term dependence on foreign supply chains.

A Path to Independence?

It is no secret that many in Greenland support independence. A 2025 poll revealed that approximately 84% of its population wants it but only 45% do if it does not negatively impact their standard of living. In a 2024 survey, Greenlanders identified ‘higher living costs’ and the ‘economic situation’ as the most pressing challenges facing their society. Given these concerns, the potential economic risks associated with independence have led to caution that the standard of living could be jeopardised.

Greenland is currently financially dependent on an annual block grant from Denmark which accounts for more than half of its parliamentary budget. The economic situation has been the primary factor inhibiting the indigenous independence movement. The increasing Western interest in Greenland could, however, provide it with a viable path to independence. Although some locals are understandably cautious about foreign interests, there is significant support for more cooperation with the US, Canada, Denmark and the EU.

Greenland’s ‘open for business’ approach with the West could provide mutually beneficial outcomes, and particularly through the promotion of its mining and energy opportunities. An increase in cooperation and investment could drive the sufficient economic development and stability needed to support Greenlandic society, making independence a clear option while limiting risks that would sacrifice the Greenlandic standard of living.

The March 2025 Election

Greenland’s 11 March election is arguably its most important and will garner unprecedented international attention. The key election issues include:

• Independence – most Greenlandic political parties support independence but their views differ on the best strategy and timeline;
• Partnership with foreign countries – Greenland’s choice of who to cooperate with, and to what extent, differ amongst the parties;
• Resource Governance – varying opinions on the management of resource wealth and particularly balancing the mining permitting policies with environmental concerns. The current ban on uranium mining ban is a key example of these differences.

A January 2025 poll showed a lead of approximately 9% for in incumbent Inuit Ataqatigiit party. However, with the Siumut party’s promise of a post-election independence referendum, and the Naleraq party’s growing popularity, it is difficult to accurately predict the results. The election results are expected in the early on 12 March and could shape Greenland’s geopolitical and economic future.

Greenland’s growing international relevance presents both opportunities and challenges as it navigates its future. While the prospect of a US purchase remains unrealistic, the increasing Western engagement — particularly in mining, energy and security — offers potential economic benefits that could support Greenland’s independence goals. Today’s election will be a pivotal moment, determining the island’s approach to foreign partnerships and its path toward greater self-sufficiency.

UPDATE: 12 March 2025 election results

Although the polls predicted that the incumbent party would retain power, the opposition performed unexpectedly well. The Demokraatit party secured a surprise victory by  winning the largest share of votes for the first time in its history. Since the 2021 election it gained over 20% and its seat count jumped from three to ten in the 31-seat parliament. Another opposition party, Naleraq, also performed strongly and came second. This result is unprecedented, because either the Inuit Ataqatigiit or Siumut have won every election since 1991. The Greenlandic people clearly wanted a change of government and direction.

Although all four parties support independence, they differ in their approach. Demokraatit favours a gradual path to independence, with an in initial focus on building a strong economic and social foundation first. Both opposition parties support increasing economic cooperation with Western allies, which should assist Greenland in achieving its long-term self-sufficiency goals. The coming days will be notable for Greenland’s future independence strategy because Demokraatit will now decide whether to form a coalition government and, if so, with which party.

Party	Leader	Vote %	Seats	+/–
Demokraatit	Jens Frederik Nielsen	30.26	10	7
Naleraq	Pele Broberg	24.77	8	4
Inuit Ataqatigiit	Múte Bourup Egede	21.62	7	−5
Siumut	Erik Jensen	14.88	4	−6
Atassut	Aqqalu Jerimiassen	7.39	2

Reagan Patrowicz is a recent graduate of the MA Geopolitics, Resources and Territory programme at King’s College London. Her dissertation research explored American and Chinese interest in Greenland’s mineral and strategic potential. She also holds a BSc in Geography from the University of Wisconsin-Madison and is an Associate Fellow at the Royal Geographical Society.