A National Resistance Movement (NRM) victory looks likely in Uganda’s February 2016 elections, meaning that of more importance for Uganda’s future will be the post-Yoweri Museveni succession. In the latest edition of East Africa Politics & Security we looked at the possible role of the ‘Crime Preventers’ in the succession question.

Crime Preventers have been a part of the Ugandan security apparatus since 1994. They are trained vigilantes, who are supposed to act as a community back up to an over-stretched police force. Yet they have undergone a considerable expansion over the past year under Inspector General of Police (IGP) Kale Kayihura, with tens of thousands of youths being trained. In February last year, 700 were trained at Makerere University. Trainees are instructed in political ideology, economics and how to strip an AK-47. At the Mbarara University of Science and Technology (Western Region), over 3,000 are reported to have passed out. In August 2014, President Museveni officiated at the passing out ceremony of a similar number at the Kabalye Police Training School in Masindi District. The previous month he oversaw the completion of training of about 30,000 such recruits.

The purpose of this mass expansion of the scheme is not clear. Previous increases in activity have coincided with elections, such as in 2011. Yet the NRM’s position is not seriously threatened as the February 2016 election approaches, with a divided opposition, and polls indicating increased sympathy for the NRM.

One Uganda analyst East Africa Politics & Security spoke with suggests that it may be indicative of divisions within the armed forces on the issue of the Museveni succession, and opposition to ‘The Muhoozi Project’ – President Museveni’s long standing plan to be succeeded by his son Brigadier Muhoozi Kainerugaba. In 2013 General David Sejusa wrote a document alleging that those opposing the project would be terminated. Those who did not oppose the plan included General David Sejusa himself, then Prime Minister Amama Mbabazi, then Chief of Defence Forces, General Aronda Nyakairima, and IGP Kale Kayihura. Of those four, Sejusa went into exile (and returned to Uganda at the end of 2014), Mbabazi has joined the opposition, and General Aronda died this weekend, having been moved to the cabinet in 2013. Only Kayihura remains in position.

Assuming Kayihura’s continued loyalty, the Crime Preventers would be a powerful force in a country that has not known a peaceful succession since independence.