Important municipal elections will take place in Brazil on 6 October, with a runoff scheduled for 27 October. They will be something of a referendum on both the performance of President Luis Inácio Lula da Silva (a.k.a. Lula) who is half-way through his third term in office, and as a stepping stone for 2026 presidential election candidates.

The race to become São Paulo mayor — which is one of the most important and high-profile posts — has taken an unexpected turn, and poses some difficult choices for the far-right former 2019-2023 president, Jair Bolsonaro. With five candidates in the running the race initially looked like a two-horse affair. One of the two front-runners was the incumbent Ricardo Nunes, who leads a coalition ranging from the centre to the far-right. Nunes has been endorsed by Bolsonaro and his Partido Liberal (PL). The second front-runner is Guilherme Boulos of the Partido Socialismo e Liberdade (PSOL) who leads a rival, mainly leftwing coalition. He has been endorsed by President Lula and his Partido dos Trabalhadores (PT). 

In recent weeks, however, a third candidate began to rapidly gain ground: he is Pablo Marçal, a combative 37-year-old far-right life coach and online influencer, whose controversial fundraising techniques have led to alleged violations of electoral law. Marçal’s aggressive online campaigning, together with his social conservatism — he supports ‘family values’, opposes abortion, and rejects LGBTQ rights — is giving him added traction with right-wing voters and bolsonaristas. A late August poll showed Marçal rising to second place (21%) behind Boulos (23%) and ahead of Nunes (19%).) Other polls suggest that, if the race goes to a second ballot, Marçal and Boulos could be in a technical tie with 38% support each. Marçal therefore appears to be splitting the right-wing vote and taking support away from Nunes. This has led to speculation that Bolsonaro might ultimately be forced to withdraw his support for Nunes and switch to backing Marçal instead which would be a political embarrassment for him. 

House speaker race still wide open

Meanwhile, on 11 September, the incumbent House speaker Arthur Lira said that he will be backing Deputy Hugo Motta of the Republicanos party as his successor. Republicanos are a right-wing party with strong evangelical links. The post is pivotal for Brazilian politics because the President and the speakers of the upper Senate and lower House form a kind of governing triumvirate. When relations between the three are good, so too are the prospects for getting government legislation approved. When the three disagree, however, a Congressional logjam becomes a more likely outcome. The role of Speaker of the lower house is also critical because the incumbent acts as a kind of gatekeeper: any attempt to impeach the president can only be initiated by the speaker. The leaders of both houses of Congress hold office for two years and can be re-elected, but only once. The next two speakers will commence their terms after the municipal elections and Brazil’s summer break, taking office in February 2025. Their relationship with President Lula will largely determine the fate of legislation in the last two-years of his four-year term in office.

In the lower house the race has recently widened out. It had initially looked as if the incumbent Arthur Lira (Progresistas – PP), who was re-elected with a landslide in 2023, would have no difficulty in putting forward a close ally for the job. For much of the past 18 months it was assumed that Bahía’s Elmar Nascimento (União Brasil – UB) was the heir apparent. This has now changed, however, with Lira switching his support to Motta. More realignments are possible. Deputy Antonio Brito of the centrist Partido Social Democrático (PSD) has thrown his hat into the ring. According to the Folha de São Paulo newspaper, the two largest parties in the lower chamber — Lula’s Partido dos Trabalhadores (PT) and Bolsonaro’s Partido Liberal (PL) — had by mid-September not decided who to support. At that point Lula denied personally endorsing any candidate. Traditionally, sitting presidents avoid appearing to be too closely involved in the election of Congressional leaders. In private, however, Lula is likely to welcome an alternative to Nascimento because the latter has a long-standing feud with the president, accusing Lula of promising him a ministerial role but never delivering.

The September 2024 issue of Brazil Focus also includes the following:

Politics

• Minister sacked over sexual harassment claims 
• Relations with Elon Musk reach breaking point
• Bolsonaro faces a São Paulo dilemma
• Race for Speaker of the House still wide open

Taking the Pulse

• Extreme poverty is on the way down

Foreign Relations

• Brazil calls on EU to delay deforestation law 
• Brazil’s Ukraine peace initiative not progressing 

Security

• Brazilian, US, and Chinese troops in joint exercise
• Police raid illegal gold operation

Economy & Business

• Lula nominates Galípolo as central bank head
• Government tries to boost revenues to tackle fiscal deficit
• Big investments expected in digital
• Inflation eases but may pick up again
• Agricultural harvest set to fall 
• Service sector shows dynamism 
• Government still optimistic on macroeconomic performance
• Company News
• Tourism sector continues to recover

Environment

• Brazil is now facing historically bad drought 
• Lula announces Amazon emergency measures

Energy Sector

• Encouraging outlook for offshore wind 
• Petrobras and Shell win new concessions
• Lula reiterates opposition to privatising state oil