Intense clashes between Operation Dignity and Libya Dawn in western Libya threatened, possibly intentionally, to derail the UN-facilitated peace talks in Morocco this week. Over the weekend, forces from the self-proclaimed Libyan National Army (LNA, which is loyal to the eastern government and is led by Khalifa Haftar) made significant advances towards Tripoli. At the same time, the Prime Minister of the eastern government Abdullah Al-Thanni announced a new campaign to take the capital back from pro-Libya Dawn elements, which he described as terrorists.

The latest assault in the suburbs around the capital marked a new phase in the conflict. By the end of the day on 20 March, Haftar’s forces claimed to have seized control of Wershafana, Aziziya, and Zahra—three suburbs of Tripoli around 40 km southwest of the capital — although they later pulled back from Aziziya, and may be engaged in other tactical retreats.

The LNA then began a campaign to retake Tripoli International Airport, a former stronghold of their militia allies from Zintan, as well as the pro-Islamist area of Gharyan. Islamist militia leaders Salah Badi and Khalid Al-Sharif denied these gains, but pro-Operation Dignity forces continued to advance toward the city. Badi was subsequently reported killed or injured during these clashes.

West of the city, Zawiya, Ajilat and Sabratha saw heavy fighting this week between pro-Haftar and Libya Dawn elements. Loud explosions were also heard in Janzour, a suburb immediately west of Tripoli, near Zawiya. Parts of Tripoli were bombarded heavily on 22 March and eastern commanders said that the capital would soon fall, although it is unlikely to do so quickly or easily.

The eastern government, including General Haftar, may have seen UN efforts to finalise agreements in Morocco this week as a threat to its interests. Establishing facts on the ground in its favour will likely affect the implementation of any agreements emerging from the talks, even if they are not derailed by these clashes in the first place. UN Special Representative Bernardino Leon condemned the assault publicly, noting that it was just as damaging to the progress of dialogue as the activities of Operation Sunrise have been.

Despite promises of a campaign to retake the capital since December 2014, Haftar’s troops have long been mired in efforts to expel extremists from Benghazi. However, now that the fight for Benghazi appears near completion, Haftar has diverted some of his ground forces to the west.

The fight over the capital will be very different from the fighting in Benghazi. The stakes are higher, as Tripoli hosts important branches of government, including the Central Bank and National Oil Corporation. Moreover, while many of the groups fighting in Benghazi are native Benghazinos, most of the militias fighting over Tripoli are not from the city. As such, neither side may be able to rely on the kind of vital support from local residents that Haftar’s forces have received in Benghazi.

This is an excerpt from an article in our monthly Libya Focus publication.