Donald Trump’s January 2025 return to the White House will have a number of important and harmful consequences for Algeria and President Abdelmadjid Tebboune’s regime. 

His new administration will inevitably strengthen the axis between Rabat, Tel Aviv and Abu Dhabi as well as making new concessions to Morocco on the Western Sahara issue. This could well include the opening of an American consulate in Dakhla. 

Other bad news for the regime could be:

• American aid for the development of Western Sahara for the benefit of Morocco and its strategic partners;
• strengthening of the UAE’s military capabilities;
• strengthening Israeli influence in the region; and
• a possible sharp fall in international gas prices if Trump makes good on his pre-election promise to increase production and exports of US shale gas.

These consequences could also be dangerous for the regime whose geopolitical isolation may increase with the implementation of Trump’s new policy in the MENA region and the Arab World. 

The Palestine and Western Sahara issues — which are amongst Algiers’ most important diplomatic priorities — hold further dangers. Trump is likely to give Israel’s hard right-wing government even greater free rein in its attacks on Gaza’s civilian population which will incite increasing anger amongst Algerians. That might lead to demonstrations which, notwithstanding the efforts to prohibit street protests, could turn against the regime itself.

Trump’s stance on Western Sahara is not based on any enmity towards Algiers but rather on the interests of his Israeli ally. In December 2020, in return for Rabat resuming normal diplomatic relations with Tel Aviv, he agreed to formally recognise Moroccan sovereignty over the disputed Western Sahara. This was a commitment that his successor President Joe Biden was unable, or unwilling, to reverse.

A second Trump administration could put the final nail in the Western Sahara coffin which could cause serious domestic problems for the regime. Tebboune has unwisely referred to and considers the issue as a national cause. In Algeria, the Western Sahara and domestic terrorism — which is currently negligible — is used to justify the increased militarisation of the state and the associated repression of its people. With the Western Sahara issue taken out of the equation, the army will lose much of its rationale. Unless it can conjure up new enemies — as it has succeeded in doing for most of its existence — the regime is in danger of fragmentation. As far as most Algerians are concerned, such a scenario could be a welcome unintended consequence of a second Trump administration.

The November 2024 issue of Algeria Focus also includes the following:

Politics

• 1 November commemoration parade met with anger
• Speculation over who will be the next prime minister
• Implications
• Tebboune threatened by a mounting raft of scandals
• Uncertainty over health and fate of M’henna Djebbar
• Controversial Algerian wins France’s prestigious Prix Goncourt

Foreign Relations

• A busy month in foreign affairs
• Algerian concerns over Trump’s re-election 

Security

• Tens of thousands of Malian refugees are expelled

Economy

• 2025 Budget: even more for the army
• Algeria placed on financial ‘grey list’
• Chaos in Franco-Algerian trade relations
• New investment law: dysfunction and delays
• Saïdal proves that state-companies can work

Energy

• Will Trump’s re-election impact the Nigeria-Europe gas pipelines?
• Czech Republic becomes Sonatrach’s latest customer