There’s evidence of impending change in the leadership of Algeria’s two ruling parties. But Menas Associates’ Algeria Politics & Security report suggests that, far from being a sign of reform, the alterations would seem to be further evidence that the Algerian regime is trying to re-create old strategies, unsuited to the new realities of the crisis that the country now confronts.

There is speculation in Algeria that Ahmed Ouyahia and Abdelaziz Belkhadem may be about to take over the leadership of the two main government-supporting political parties, the Rally for National Democracy (RND) and the National Liberation front (FLN) respectively.

Ouyahia, who has acted as Chief of Staff for the presidency for more than a year, stood down as leader of the RND in January 2013, having led it since 1999. His return to the leadership now looks like a foregone conclusion. Almost all members of the RND’s National Council have signed a motion of support in favour of his return as the party’s leader. It will be submitted for approval at the party’s National Council meeting on 8 June.

The return of Belkhadem to the FLN’s leadership does not, however, look like being either so certain or so straightforward. Although Belkhadem is reported to have been given the green light to resume his former position, from which he was also ejected at the same time as Ouyahia, his return is unlikely to be easy.

His ouster from the leadership was a messy affair, with the majority of the FLN’s Central Committee members withdrawing their support for him. Even more galling, and something he might possibly forgive but certainly never forget, was the ruthless way in which he was publicly humiliated by the presidency in August 2014 (See Algeria Politics & Security – 29.08.14).

The knives may be out for the current Secretary-General Amar Saâdani, with as many as half of the FLN’s MPs threatening to leave the party in opposition to his leadership and other issues. But Saâdani is a political fighter, and he is unlikely to step aside readily.

The regime seems to be returning to strategies which it relied upon in the past but which may prove ill-suited to the present. With President Bouteflika believed to be near his end, the government in a state of chaos, and the economic crisis deepening, the regime is in state of panic. Its solution, which we believe will be no solution at all, seems to be to try to recreate the apparent stability of Bouteflika’s first three terms through the restoration of the alliance that supported him through that time.

That alliance comprised the FLN, the RND, and the MSP led by Bouguerra Soltani. But hopes (and perhaps even plans) of recreating it now as a solution to the government’s myriad problems now look like a forlorn attempt to bring back “yesterday’s men”.

In the short term, however, the return of Ouyahia (and perhaps Belkhadem) may enable the RND and FLN to work together just long enough to put a temporary check on the mismanagement and corruption scandals that now afflict most ministries and branches of the government. It could also raise the chances of a successful revision of the constitution, and might move the regime towards addressing the question of the succession to the presidency.

This article was taken from our Algeria Politics & Security publication. For more information about Algeria Politics & Security, contact us here.