The 31 July killing of Al-Qa’ida head, Ayman Zawahiri, by a US drone strike in Afghanistan’s capital of Kabul is prompting a sense of unease in Morocco. This is because one of the names being bandied about as a possible successor is a Moroccan called Abd Al Rahman al-Maghrebi whose real name is Mohamed Abaytah. 

Al-Maghrebi — who is sometimes described as the Fox of al-Qa’ida and who the US has officially designated as a terrorist — is believed to be in his early fifties and comes from Marrakech. He reportedly studied software in Germany before travelling to Afghanistan where he married Zawahiri’s daughter and started a family. He was appointed as head of al-Qa’ida’s influential Al-Sahab media wing. 

After the events of 9/11, he fled to Iran where he currently resides. There have been a number of reports of his death. He was originally reported to have been killed in Waziristan and more recently France announced he had been killed in Mali. However he is clearly alive and, according to some, is a serious contender to take over from Zawahiri. 

The prospect of al-Maghrebi doing so is already creating serious concern in the Kingdom. It fears that, with him at the helm, the terrorist group may start to focus its attentions more squarely on Morocco. Given the Kingdom’s normalisation of its relations with Israel, and its close strategic partnership with the US, there are certainly good reasons why it may want to target Morocco. This sense of vulnerability is only heightened by the presence of al-Qa’ida-linked groups in the Sahel (for further detail and comprehensive analysis see our Sahara Focus sister publication). 

Rabat has already found itself in the firing line of the organisation’s propaganda campaign. In April 2022, Zawahiri posted a video message threatening Morocco, Egypt, and a number of European countries, and referred to the Kingdom as ‘an enemy of Islam.’

As a result, the domestic media has been littered with reports suggesting that were he to take over, al-Maghrebi may seek not only to recruit more Moroccans to al-Qa’ida, but that he may launch a campaign of attacks inside the Kingdom, possibly in revenge for Zawahiri’s killing.

Exaggerated concerns

However, such concerns may well be exaggerated. Firstly, it is far from assured that al-Maghrebi will take over from Zawahiri. While his name is certainly in the running, there are other candidates that would appear to be more likely successors, including those founding members of the organisation who are still alive. Al-Maghrebi may be a senior figure in al-Qa’ida but he was not one of its founders. 

A more likely prospect would seem to be Mohamed Ibrahim Saif al-Adel, an Egyptian national and al-Qa’ida veteran, who is also in Iran. His name is certainly being put forward as the most probable contender and, given his historical status within the organisation as well as his spiritual authority, would appear to be a more fitting leader. 

Furthermore, even if al-Maghrebi does take over, fears that the organisation would focus more on Morocco may be unfounded. Al-Maghrebi himself is not known for his interest or involvement in Moroccan affairs and he has few if any connections to local terrorist networks in the Kingdom. The group is very weak in Morocco with current terrorist suspects generally more connected to Islamic State (IS), either ideologically or practically. In addition, al-Maghrebi is in Iran, making his ability to lead or control the organisation more challenging. 

Moreover, al-Qa’ida has been shattered over the past two decades. Its structures are weak, and many of its key leaders have been killed or are in detention, which further diminishes institutional knowledge and relationships within the organisation. It has also struggled to gain new recruits. 

More arrests

Thus Morocco’s fears may be overblown, even if al-Maghrebi does end up taking over as head. This does not mean that one should rule out the possibility of further opportunistic attacks by militant elements inside Morocco. They are a persistent threat but al-Qa’ida does not have the strength to refocus its attentions on the Kingdom and target it in any significant fashion. 

In the short-term, at least Islamic State will remain a far more potent adversary. This month the Bureau central d’investigations judiciaires (BCIJ) announced that it had arrested a 36 year old man in Tetouan who is suspected of being affiliated to IS. He had apparently been active on social media networks where he shared and promoted ‘extremist subversive ideology and incitement of the planning of criminal projects targeting people and public and private infrastructure.’